2024/25 U.S. Wheat Outlook: Larger Supplies, Higher Exports, Lower Stocks
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook forecasts increased wheat supplies, with exports rising by 25 million bushels to 850 million due to strong white wheat sales to East Asia. Wheat imports are also increased, while ending stocks are reduced to 795 million bushels. Global wheat supplies and consumption are slightly down, but ending stocks rise slightly to 257.9 million tons. Wheat prices are expected to remain stable at $5.60 per bushel, despite export and production challenges, especially from Russia and the EU.
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook forecasts slightly larger supplies, unchanged domestic use, and increased exports, leading to lower ending stocks. The U.S. wheat exports are raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million, with strong sales of white wheat to East Asia. Wheat imports are increased by 5 million bushels to 125 million, driven by a solid pace for Hard Red Spring wheat. Despite the increase in exports, projected ending stocks are reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million bushels. Globally, wheat supplies, consumption, and trade are expected to decline slightly, but ending stocks are projected to rise slightly to 257.9 million tons.
The 2024/25 U.S. wheat outlook anticipates larger supplies, with a significant increase in exports leading to a reduction in ending stocks. U.S. wheat exports are projected to rise by 25 million bushels to 850 million, supported by a robust pace of white wheat sales to East Asian markets, which are up 15 million bushels to 210 million. Hard Red Spring and Soft Red Winter wheat exports also see a 5 million bushel increase each. Wheat imports are raised by 5 million bushels to 125 million, driven primarily by Hard Red Spring wheat.
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In terms of price performance, U.S. wheat prices are expected to remain stable, with the season-average farm price projected to stay at $5.60 per bushel. This stability is supported by the increase in exports and the reduction in ending stocks. On the global front, supplies and consumption are forecast to decline slightly, with a forecasted drop in production from major wheat-producing regions like the European Union and Brazil.
Global wheat trade is also expected to decrease by 1.0 million tons, with Russia’s exports declining due to an export quota. The total global wheat trade for 2024/25 is forecast at 213.7 million tons. However, ending stocks for global wheat are expected to rise slightly to 257.9 million tons, marking the lowest level since the 2015/16 season.
Finally
The U.S. wheat outlook for 2024/25 reflects a positive export outlook, although global production challenges and export restrictions in Russia may impact the market.
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Source : Investing.com
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