2024/25 Wheat Outlook: Abundant U.S. Supplies Drive Global Export Surge Amidst Tightening Global Stocks
In the 2024/25 wheat outlook, the U.S. anticipates a 6% increase in supplies, with production set to rise by 3%. Domestic use is expected to see a modest uptick, while exports are forecasted to surge to 775 million bushels, aided by competitive prices. Global consumption hits record highs, driving a rise in trade despite tightening stocks. Russia leads exports, with the world ending stocks estimated at 253.6 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16.
Amidst larger U.S. wheat supplies and increased production globally, 2024/25 forecasts reveal a surge in exports, with the U.S. poised to capitalize on competitive prices. While domestic use sees a modest uptick, global consumption hits record highs, driving a rise in trade despite tightening stocks.
U.S. Wheat Outlook (2024/25)
Larger supplies projected, up 6% from 2023/24, driven by increased carry-in stocks and production.
All wheat production expected at 1,858 million bushels, a 3% increase over last year, with higher harvested acreage and yields.
Domestic use to rise by 1%, primarily due to increased feed and residual use.
Exports forecasted at 775 million bushels, up 55 million from 2023/24, aided by higher exportable supplies and competitive prices.
Ending stocks projected at 766 million bushels, a four-year high.
Season-average farm price (SAFP) estimated at $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year due to higher stocks and lower projected corn prices.
Global Wheat Outlook (2024/25)
Slightly lower supplies projected globally, with increased consumption, modestly higher trade, and reduced stocks.
Production forecasted at a record 798.2 million tons, but lower carry-in stocks for several countries offset the increase.
World consumption raised to a record 802.4 million tons, with notable increases in food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use, while feed and residual use declines.
Global trade expected to reach 216.0 million tons, slightly higher than last year but below the 2022/23 record.
Russia remains the leading exporter at 52.0 million tons, with exports also projected higher for Australia, Argentina, the United States, Kazakhstan, and Canada.
World ending stocks estimated at 253.6 million tons, the lowest since 2015/16, with reductions in Russia and the EU partially offset by increases for the United States and India.
Conclusion
The 2024/25 wheat outlook showcases contrasting dynamics of ample U.S. supplies buoying global exports against a backdrop of tightening global stocks. With robust production expected in key wheat-producing nations and rising demand worldwide, stakeholders must navigate evolving market conditions to optimize trade opportunities amidst shifting supply dynamics. Despite challenges posed by lower stocks in key regions, the projected increase in global consumption underscores the resilience of the wheat market, offering potential for continued growth and stability in the coming year.
