GRAINS-Ample supply holds corn prices near lowest level since 2020
CANBERRA, Sept 18 (Reuters) – Chicago corn futures inched higher on Monday but an upgrade to European production forecasts and expectations for the second biggest U.S. corn crop in history kept prices near their lowest since 2020.
Soybean futures stabilised after data showing weak demand from U.S. crushers pushed prices down 1.5% on Friday. Wheat fell amid ample supply from the Black Sea region.
FUNDAMENTALS
* The most-active corn contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Cv1 was 0.1% higher at $4.76-3/4 a bushel, as of 0110 GMT.
* CBOT soybeans Sv1 were up 0.2% at $13.43 a bushel. Wheat Wv1 was down 0.2% at $6.03 a bushel.
* Summer rain has benefited maize (corn) crops in much of the European Union, with Consultancy Strategie Grains raising its forecast for the EU’s 2023 maize crop by nearly 1 million metric tons to 59.6 million.
* In France, an estimated 82% of maize crops were in good or excellent condition by Sept. 11, up from 80% the previous week, farm office FranceAgriMer said.
* Meanwhile, the U.S. government last week raised its U.S. corn crop estimate. With huge shipments from Brazil reducing overseas demand for U.S. corn, analysts believe U.S. stocks could next year be near their highest in a decade.
* Helping depress prices, large speculators had by Sept. 12 built their biggest net short position in CBOT corn since August 2020, regulatory data showed, with traders saying they saw further selling on Friday.
* Chicago corn has fallen 30% this year and hit $4.74 several times in August and September, a level last reached in December 2020.
* Speculators also increased their net short position in CBOT wheat and cut their net long position in soybeans in the week to Sept. 12, the regulatory data showed.
* Turning to soybeans, U.S. National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data on Friday showed U.S. soybean crush fell to an 11-month low in August, below almost all trade estimates.
* Weak crushing demand comes as U.S. exports struggle to compete with record Brazilian shipments. CBOT soybean prices are down around 12% this year.
* In wheat markets, Ukrainian port authorities said two cargo vessels arrived in Ukraine on Saturday, the first to use a temporary corridor to sail into Black Sea ports and load grain for African and Asian markets.
* Five vessels have so far left the Ukrainian port of Odesa using the corridor which hugs the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria.
* Meanwhile, Russia launched a combined drone and missile attack on Ukraine early on Sunday, hitting an agriculture facility in the Odesa region, Ukraine’s Air Forces said.
* Ukraine has mostly managed to continue to export grain despite attacks and blockades by Russia. Romania said a plan to double the monthly transit capacity for Ukrainian grain through its Constanta port in the coming months remains achievable.
* Poland, Slovakia and Hungary announced restrictions on Ukrainian grain imports on Friday.
* Wheat prices are near 33-month lows due to huge exports of cheap grain from Russia, which is in the middle of a second consecutive large harvest.
MARKETS NEWS
* Asian shares started cautiously on Monday in a week packed with central bank meetings that include the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. MKTS/GLOB
(Reporting by Peter Hobson; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)
((peter.hobson@thomsonreuters.com;))
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