USDA Maintains Forecast For 2023-’24 Corn Use In Ethanol
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Oct. 12. The estimate for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol was revised down.
The agency’s current 2023-’24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower feed and residual use and esports, and smaller ending stocks.
Corn production is forecast at 15.064 billion bushels, down 70 million bushels on a cut in yield to 173 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 16.451 billion bushels, down 160 million bushels from last month, with lower production and beginning stocks. Exports are reduced 25 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels based on lower supply.
The USDA currently predicts 5.3 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2023-’24, a forecast maintained from the September WASDE. The agency lowered its estimate for 2022-’23 corn use in ethanol to 5.177 billion bushels, down from last month’s estimate of 5.195 billion bushels. Approximately 5.32 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production for 2021-’22.
With supply falling more than use, the USDA has lowered its estimate for 2023-’24 corn ending stocks by 110 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $4.95 per bushel.
The USDA has raised its forecast for foreign corn production based on increases for Argentina, Moldova, the European Union, and Paraguay. Argentina corn production is raised reflecting higher expected areas. The EU is higher on an increase for France.
Major global trade changes include larger corn exports for Argentina and Paraguay but a reduction for the U.S. Corn imports are lowered for Bangladesh. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, reflecting increases for Ukraine and Moldova. Global corn stocks, at 312.4 million tons, are down 1.6 million tons.
