EU cuts 2023/24 wheat export forecast, increases stocks
The European Commission lowered its forecast of European Union exports of common wheat, or soft wheat, in 2023/24 to 31 million metric tons from 32 million projected a month ago.
EU soft wheat exports so far in 2023/24 are running 22% below the year-ago level, reflecting stiff early-season competition from Russia.
The reduced export outlook drove an upward revision to the Commission’s forecast of 2023/24 soft wheat ending stocks, now at 19.1 million tons against 17.8 million expected last month, though slightly below last season’s stockpile of 19.3 million.
The increased supply forecast for soft wheat was supported to a lesser extent by a 200,000-ton increase to the Commission’s estimate of usable production from this year’s harvest, now pegged at 125.5 million tons.
In contrast, barley usable production was cut again to a new 12-year low of 47.5 million tons, 0.9 million below the Commission’s September estimate.
The barley crop was hurt by drought and hot spells in Spain and Scandinavia, which are major production zones.
In its grain supply and demand data, the Commission increased its forecast for EU barley imports to 1.7 million tons from 1.5 million previously, though that remained below last season’s 2 million tons.
For maize, currently being harvested, the Commission kept almost unchanged its harvest estimate at 59.9 million tons, in a rebound from last year’s drought-hit crop of 53.1 million.
In oilseeds, estimated EU rapeseed production was revised up 19.8 million tons from 19.6 million, while projected EU imports of rapeseed were cut by 200,000 tons to 5.6 million tons.
For sunflower seed, which like maize is being harvested, expected production this year was lowered to 10 million tons from 10.5 million a month ago.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Gus Trompiz; editing by Mark Heinrich and Jonathan Oatis)
