USDA Boosts Forecast For 2023-’24 Corn Use In Ethanol
The USDA increased its forecast for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report, released Jan. 12. The agency lowered its forecast for season-average corn prices.
The 2023-’24 U.S. corn outlook is for greater production; larger food, seed and industrial use; increased feed and residual use; and higher ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels, up 108 million as an increase in yield to a record 177.3 bushels per acre is partly offset by a 600,000 acre decline in harvested area.
Total corn use is raised 75 million bushels to 14.6 billion, with feed and residual use raised 25 million bushels to 5.7 billion based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the USDA’s Grain Stocks report, and historical revisions to production and stocks from 2018 to 2022 following the recent Agricultural Census results.
The USDA raised its forecast for 2023-’24 corn use in ethanol to 5.375 billion bushels, up 50 million bushels from the December forecast of 5.325 billion bushels. Corn use for fuel ethanol was estimated at 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23 and at 5.32 billion bushels for 2021-’22.
With supply rising more than use, 2023-’24 corn stocks are up 31 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is lowered 5 cents to $4.80 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2023-’24 is forecast up 1.19 million tons to 1.51 billion. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, lower trade, and higher stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, India, and Paraguay partly offset by a decline for Bazil. China corn production is raised to a record 288.8 million tons based on the latest area and yield data from the Natural Bureau of Statistics. India corn production is raised on higher areas. Brazil corn production is cut reflecting lower second crop corn area expectations.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2023-‘24 include increased corn exports for Turkey, but reductions for Brazil and India. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Iraq, and Turkey but reduced for the EU, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. China’s corn feed and residual use is raised based on a larger crop. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting an increase for China partly offset by a decline for Brazil. Global corn stocks, at 325.2 million tons, are up 10 million.
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