USDA Predicts 2024 Ethanol Exports Will Set A New Volume Record
In its latest report, the USDA raised its 2024 ethanol export forecast to $4 billion, citing competitive U.S. prices. Livestock, dairy exports offset grain reduction. Record shipments expected to top 1.6 billion gallons, targeting Canada, India, UK, and Colombia. Canada leads supported by ethanol-gasoline blending. India’s ethanol push boosts industrial demand. UK sees record E10 blending. Colombia’s return to E10 blending drives surge. Fiscal year 2024 agricultural exports remain at $170.5 billion.
The USDA expanded its outlook for 2024 ethanol exports in its latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, released May 29. The agency now expects ethanol exports to reach $4 billion this year, up $400 million from the February outlook.
Total U.S. agricultural exports in for fiscal year (FY) 2024 are currently projected at $170.5 billion, unchanged from the February forecast. Higher exports of livestock and dairy, as well as increased ethanol sales, largely offset expected reductions in grain and feed, oilseeds and horticulture products.
The USDA attributed the $400 million increase in its forecast for ethanol exports to competitive U.S. prices which facilitate a record volume projection. If achieved, the expected $4 billion in ethanol exports would match the FY 2022 record in terms of value.
According to the USDA, the per-unit values for U.S. ethanol are well below the record-highs of the previous three years, which is expected to lead to a more favorable U.S.-Brazil price spread, boosting the price competitiveness of U.S. ethanol exports. That boosted competitive is expected to clear the way for shipments to surpass the previous FY 2018 ethanol volume record of 1.6 billion gallons. The USDA said record shipments are expected to more than half of the top 10 markets, most importantly Canada, India, the U.K. and Colombia.
The report notes that Canada remains a top destination for U.S. ethanol exports by a wide margin supported by higher ethanol-gasoline blending in Ontario and Quebec. India’s push to higher fuel ethanol blending and border protection for fuel-quality ethanol create opportunity to backfill demand in the industrial chemical market, the USDA said. Exports to the U.K. remain at record levels with higher E10 blending and U.S. suppliers replacing those on continental Europe, while surging U.S. ethanol exports to Colombia are supported by the country’s recent return to E10 blending despite a countervailing duty, the agency added.
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