Wheat yield to be below govt forecast: Analysts
The agriculture ministry has stuck to its initial projection of total output at a record 112.18 million tonne while acknowledging reports of crop damage in states such as Punjab and Haryana.
Private crop forecasters have predicted far lower wheat output this year than the government’s estimates following a prolonged spell of rain and storms in key producing states last month. They, however, added that there’s unlikely to be any serious shortages since the grain’s export is banned.
The agriculture ministry has stuck to its initial projection of total output at a record 112.18 million tonne while acknowledging reports of crop damage in states such as Punjab and Haryana.
Estimates released by Agri Watch on behalf of the Rollers Flour Millers Association of India on Saturday pegged total production at 102.24 million tonne, 8.9% lower than the official projection. Agri Watch reduced its output figures from 104.24 million tonne to 102.24 million tonne due to “unseasonal rains and hailstorm” in March, it said in its update.
The estimates are based on a two-stage survey across 80 wheat-growing districts in nine states. These are Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.
The government expects only a “marginal” loss in wheat output due to untimely rain last month and the world’s second largest grower is still on track to harvest 112 million tonne, Union food secretary Sanjeev Chopra said on March 4. Chopra had said an expansion in acreage and higher yields in states not affected by storms will offset the impact of damage in states that faced bad weather.
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