USDA lowers rice import forecast as purchases slow
The USDA forecasts the Philippines will import 4.6 million metric tons (MT) of rice in 2024, down from 4.7 million MT due to slower purchases, particularly from Vietnam. Despite this reduction, the Philippines remains the top global rice importer. Data through July shows 2.4 million MT of rice was imported, with Vietnam supplying 74% of this amount. The USDA also predicts global rice imports will decrease to 54.13 million MT, driven by lower production and reduced imports from the Philippines and Brazil.
THE Philippines could import less rice this year as its purchases of the commodity have slowed, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) said.
In a monthly report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service projected the Philippines’ rice import volume to reach 4.6 million metric tons (MT) in 2024, down from the previous forecast of 4.7 million MT, due to “slowing purchases of Vietnam rice.”
Despite this, the country still ranked as the world’s top rice importer. Vietnam followed with an estimated 2.9 million MT of rice imports and the European Union with 2.2 million MT.Councilor who opposed POGOs to replace Guo
Agriculture Secretary Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has said that the country’s rice imports were unlikely to reach the USDA’s earlier projection and that that the 4.7 million MT might be a bit high and could be “the worst-case scenario.”
Data from the Bureau of Plant Industry showed that rice deliveries to the Philippines totaled 2.4 million MT as of end-July, up by 18.8 percent from 2.02 million, MT recorded in the same months in 2023.
Vietnam remained the country’s top source of the staple during the period, shipping 1.8 million MT of rice or around 74 percent of the total imports.
Thailand delivered some 358,727 MT of rice, Pakistan followed with 154,523 MT, and some 66,640 MT from Myanmar.
The remaining volume, meanwhile, came from India, China, Japan, Cambodia, Italy and Spain.
Last year, inbound shipments of the staple totaled 3.6 million MT, down 5.9 percent from the record high 3.82 million MT logged in 2022. For this year, the DA expects rice imports to not exceed last year’s volume.
Global rice imports are forecast to go down to 54.13 million MT “led by reductions in the Philippines and Brazil,” to USDA said.
Rice production was projected to go down due to lower output by rice-producing countries.
“Global production is estimated lower this month on reduced production in Burma, Malaysia, Vietnam, and the Philippines more than offsetting an improved Brazil crop,” the US agency said.
Domestic milled rice production is expected to increase to 12.7 million MT despite reduced import duties compared to last year’s 12.3 million MT.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed that production of palay (unmilled rice) from January to June reached 8.53 million MT, down 5.5 percent from the 9.026 million MT recorded a year earlier.
The USDA also noted that the country’s consumption and ending stocks could remain steady at 17.3 million MT and 3.6 million MT, respectively.
Rice consumption globally was projected to decrease “based on reductions in the Philippines, Kenya, and Vietnam.”
As for rice prices, the USDA said that major Asian exporters experienced a narrowing of their price quote spread as market volatility had subsided.
Vietnam’s prices jumped $7 to $559 per ton while Thailand’s increased slightly by $2 to $573 per ton with only limited demand from Indonesia and the Philippines.
Pakistani rice prices, meanwhile, fell $33 to $555 per ton due to slowing demand.
Source Link : https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/08/14/business/top-business/usda-lowers-rice-import-forecast-as-purchases-slow/1964069
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