Report predicts reduced Brazilian ethanol production in 2024 despite increased demand: Brazil
At the 52nd Gastech Exhibition & Conference, Indian Petroleum Minister Hardeep Puri stated that India will account for 35% of the global energy demand increase over the next two decades. He emphasized India’s energy “trilemma” of balancing availability, affordability, and a green transition, while global leaders discussed energy stability, decarbonization, and India’s growing role in shaping global energy policies.
Total ethanol production in Brazil is expected to fall by approximately 8% this year, according to a report filed with the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service on Aug. 31. Ethanol consumption, however, is expected to increase by nearly 4%.
Brazil is the world’s second largest producer of ethanol, trailing only the U.S. The report predicts total ethanol production in Brazil will reach 32.5 billion liters (8.59 billion gallons) in 2024, down from 25.36 billion liters in 2023, but up when compared to the 30.75 billion liters produced in 2022. The 32.5 billion liters of production forecast for this year includes 25.5 billion liters of sugarcane ethanol and 7 billion liters of corn ethanol. Cellulosic ethanol production is forecast at 51 million liters.
Fuel ethanol production is expected to fall to 28.83 billion liters in 2024, compared to 31.31 billion liters in 2023 and 27.6 billion liters in 2022.
Brazil currently exports far more ethanol than in imports. Total exports for 2024 are expected to reach 2.6 billion liters, including 320 million liters of fuel ethanol, compared to 2.51 billion liters and 315 million liters, respectively last year.
Brazil is expected to import only 200 million liters of ethanol this year, including 197 million liters of fuel ethanol. Imports were at 59 million liters last year, including 57 million liters of fuel ethanol.
The country is expected to consume 31.9 billion liters of ethanol in 2024, up from both 30.76 billion liters in 2023 and 29.7 billion liters in 2022. Fuel ethanol consumption is expected to reach 29.71 billion liters this year, up from 28.67 billion liters in 2023 and 27.6 billion liters in 2022.
Brazil is expected to have 333 sugarcane ethanol plants in operation this year, up from 330 last year, but down when compared to the 337 in operation in 2022. Total nameplate capacity for sugarcane ethanol plants is expected to reach 55.1 billion liters per year this year, up from 54.96 billion liters in 2023 and 54.28 billion liters in 2022.
The country is also estimated to currently have 22 biorefineries that process corn only or both corn and sugarcane feedstocks, up from 17 facilities in both 2022 and 2023. Total capacity for those facilities is approximately 5.6 billion liters per year, up from 5.49 billion liters in 2023 and 5 billion liters in 2022.
In addition to biorefineries that process corn and sugarcane, Brazil also currently has two facilities that produce cellulosic ethanol with a combined capacity of 164 million liters. Only one facility was in existence last year with 82 million liters of capacity.
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