Australia : GIAV tour forecasts Vic wheat crop at 3.4Mt, barley 2.6Mt
The Grain Industry Association of Victoria’s crop tour forecasts wheat and barley yields for the state at 3.4 million tonnes and 2.6 million tonnes, respectively. This marks a significant decline from last year’s figures and highlights issues such as dryness and frost impacts. The Mallee region suffered the most, with wheat yields dropping 58% and barley 45%. The assessment involved data from over 2,460 paddocks in Victoria and southern NSW.
THE ANNUAL Grain Industry Association of Victoria crop tour has forecast the state’s wheat and barley crops now heading into harvest at 3.4 million tonnes (Mt) and 2.6Mt respectively.
These figures compare with ABARES standing forecasts released early September of 4Mt for wheat and 2.4Mt for barley, and GIAV’s estimates for last year’s crop at 5.9Mt for wheat and 3.4Mt for barley.
GIAV’s 2024-25 wheat figure represents a 44-percent drop in Vic’s average wheat yield from 3.95t/ha in 2023-24 to 2.2t per hectare this harvest, while the barley yield at 3.05t/ha is seen as down 28pc from 4.25t/ha last harvest.
GIAV calculates its state yields with weighted averages using regional area estimates provided by Digital Agricultural Services.
“Crops in the southern Wimmera and Western District needed filling rains to achieve estimated yields,” GIAV said in its summary released based on paddocks surveyed and inspected on October 16-17, ahead of some widespread rain and localised hail.
“Frost impacts were most focused in the north-eastern Mallee, but were much less than most scouts had expected.”
Dryness in paddocks was a significant factor across all of western Vic, and into southern New South Wales.
Of the 12 regions surveyed and inspected, or using extrapolated data, the Murray region of NSW was the only one to have an estimated wheat yield higher than last year’s, up 16.5pc to 3.1t/ha, while the Goulburn-Broken catchment in north-central Vic posted the only barley rise, up 2.1pc.
GIAV yield estimates in tonnes per hectare for crops inspected on the GIAV 2024 crop tour held mid-October. Source: GIAV
The Mallee showed the biggest year-on-year drop in estimated yield for wheat and barley across all 12 regions, with wheat down 58pc to 1.46t/ha and barley down 45pc to 2.06t/ha.
Wimmera crops showed the second-biggest forecast drop, with wheat down 48pc to 2.13t/ha, and barley down 23pc to 3.73t/ha.
With the aid of Agriculture Victoria staff, GIAV scouts from member organisations gathered data for 2460 paddocks in Victoria, as well as 275 in southern NSW.
In Vic, paddocks surveyed comprised 41pc wheat, 26pc barley, 16pc canola, and 17pc lentils.
In the four Vic districts, the challenging season had the biggest impact on wheat crops in the Mallee, where 8.8pc of wheat paddocks surveyed had been cut for hay, and 2.4pc harboured failed crops.
In the Wimmera and north-central Vic, 4.2-4.3pc wheat paddocks surveyed had been cut for hay, but no wheat crops were marked as failed in the Wimmera.
On barley, 4.6pc of Mallee crops had been cut for hay, and crops had failed in 1.9pc of surveyed paddocks.
Crop scouts physically assessed 333 wheat crops and 296 barley crops on the 2024 tour sponsored by Ridley AgriProducts,
Source Link : https://www.graincentral.com/news/giav-tour-forecasts-vic-wheat-crop-at-3-4mt-barley-2-6mt/
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