Driven by abundant monsoon, bumper kharif harvest likely
India is projected to see a bumper harvest of kharif crops like rice, maize, and sugarcane, spurred by above-average monsoon rains. With estimated 2024 rice output at 14.5 million tonnes and soybean production at 13.3 million tonnes, food inflation pressures may ease. Enhanced yields are also expected for maize and sugarcane, benefiting ethanol production
India is likely to reap bumper harvests of kharif or summer-sown rice, maize and sugarcane, largely driven by an abundant monsoon, the government’s latest estimates based on acreages, its own inputs and feedback from private analysts showed on Sunday.
The country is also likely to reap higher quantities of certain oilseeds, such as soyabean, which together with robust cereals production could help to put a lid on a stubborn spell of high food inflation.
Harvesting of a slew of farm produce, which accounts for nearly half of the country’s annual food supply, has picked up despite a late start in some states due to torrential rains in September and early October.
Total 2024 summer rice output, despite concerns over some dip in yields due to excess rains, is likely to be about 14.5 million tonnes, higher than the previous year’s 14.2 million tonnes, an official said. Farmers had planted paddy in about 41 million hectares, up 4.1% year-on-year.
“Generally, the monsoon has been good and it is estimated that foodgrains will be surplus while some pulses and oilseeds will be higher (than last year),” an official said, requesting anonymity.
The government has not yet made the estimates public because it is squaring up data from various sources, including satellite-based inputs, a process known as triangulation. In September, the agricultural ministry held several rounds of assessments of likely output with private producers, forecasters and farm industry associations.
The June-September monsoon, vital for Asia’s third-largest economy, was 8% above normal. It waters nearly half of the country’s net-sown area. Robust rains bolster farm output and consumer demand, helping boost the economy.
The country is also on course to achieve higher soyabean output, critical to meet cooking-oil demand, at 13.3 million tonnes on favourable weather and slightly higher acreage. The country produced an estimated 13 million tonnes in 2023-24, according to official data. Soyabean is used to make several foods, from soy sauce to refined oil. It’s a major crop in Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Rajasthan. India imports up to 60% of its edible oil demand.
Maize output is estimated to marginally exceed the previous year’s 37 million tonnes.
The economy remains under pressure from high food inflation and volatile prices stoked by extreme weather and, to a large extent, global prices. In an indication that production of foodgrains is expected to be plentiful, India has gradually been removing a spate of restrictions on exports of farm produce imposed to control high food inflation.
“How inflation in food behaves going forward is still subject to vagaries such as geopolitical developments, final production and how its accurate data is, as well as trade policy,” said Abhishek Agrawal, an analyst with Comtrade.
India is the world’s largest rice exporter, accounting for over 40% of global rice shipments. In 2021-22, the country exported nearly 22 million tonnes of the grain, about a sixth of its total domestic output.
The Union government on September 28 lifted a ban on export of non-basmati white rice, reversing a trade policy that curbed shipments of key agricultural produce to check a spurt in local prices.
The Centre allowed shipments of all varieties of white rice, prohibited in July 2023, but imposed a minimum export price of $490 a tonne with immediate effect to discourage extremely cheap overseas sales.
The country is also expected to have a higher sugarcane output of over 470 million tonnes, which will likely make more cane available for both the sweetener and ethanol, used to blend with petrol.
The Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers’ Association has urged clearance to export 2 million tonnes of sugar as opening balance of the item is pegged at 8.8 million tonnes.
Source Link : https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/driven-by-abundant-monsoon-bumper-kharif-harvest-likely-101730661004711.html
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