January WASDE maintains 2024-’25 forecast for corn use in ethanol production
The USDA’s January report projects lower U.S. corn production for 2024-’25 at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million due to reduced yields. Total corn use is down 75 million bushels, with exports and feed use cut. However, corn use for ethanol remains steady at 5.5 billion bushels. Global corn stocks are down to 293.3 million tons, despite increased production in China and Russia.
January 11, 2025
BY Erin Voegele
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Jan. 10. The forecast for 2024-’25 corn production was lowered, with the outlook for prices revised up.
According to USDA, the current 2024-’25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3 bushels is partially offset by a 200,000 acre increase in harvested area.
Total corn use is down 75 million bushels to 15.1 billion. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. Exports are cut 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting lower supplies.
The USDA has maintained its forecast that 5.5 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2024-’25, up from 5.478 billion bushels for 2023-’24. Corn use for ethanol production was at 5.176 billion bushels for 2022-’23.
With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 198 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 15 cents to $4.25 per bushel.
Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ghana, and Russia. China corn production is raised to a record 294.9 million tons based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Corn production is higher for Russia based on the latest information from Rosstat.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024-‘25 include lower corn exports for the United States and Brazil. Corn imports are raised for Turkey but lowered for China, South Korea, and Japan. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 293.3 million tons, are down 3.1 million.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magzine
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