Sugar production likely to decrease to 45-50 lakh tonnes
India’s sugar production for 2024-25 is expected to drop to 265-270 lakh tonnes, below domestic consumption of 290 lakh tonnes. Despite sufficient stock, sugar reserves may dip below 50 lakh tonnes by September 2025. Export prospects remain uncertain due to higher domestic prices and lower global rates, though production declines in Brazil and Thailand could boost prices.
iGrain India – India’s sugar production for the 2024-25 season is expected to fall significantly, from around 319-320 lakh tonnes in 2023-24 to approximately 265-270 lakh tonnes, which is notably lower than the country’s total annual domestic consumption of 290 lakh tonnes.
Despite this decrease in production, the sugar industry is expected to meet domestic demand without any issues due to the large stock carried over from the previous season.
However, by the end of the current marketing season, expected to be on September 30, 2025, the sugar stock is likely to dip below 50 lakh tonnes.
The situation raises concerns about India’s ability to fulfill its export quota of 10 lakh tonnes of sugar.
Millers are hesitant to sell at lower prices to exporting firms since they can get higher prices in the domestic market.
Moreover, exporters are wary due to less favorable international prices. However, there is a glimmer of hope for Indian exporters as sugar production has dropped in other major producing countries like Brazil and Thailand.
This could potentially boost global sugar prices, making it more attractive for exporters to ship sugar from India in the coming months.
By January 2025, sugar production in India has already decreased by 20-22 lakh tonnes compared to the previous season, which signals the continued impact of lower yields and other factors affecting the current sugar production cycle.
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Source : Investing.com
