Global sugar market seen shifting to surplus in 2025-2026
The global sugar market is expected to shift to a 2.7 million-tonne surplus in 2025/26, reversing a 3.7 million-tonne deficit, according to Green Pool. Production is forecast to rise 4.5% to 202 million tonnes, with increases in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Consumption is projected to grow 1.2% to 198.3 million tonnes.
LONDON: The global sugar balance is expected to shift to a small surplus in the 2025/26 season with production set to rise, analyst Green Pool said on Wednesday in its initial forecast for the crop year.
The Australia-based sugar and biofuels analyst said the surplus in the 2025/26 season was forecast at 2.7 million tonnes compared with a deficit of 3.7 million in the prior season.
“Global stocks remain tight, but will obtain some small relief from the projected surplus,” the analyst said.
Global production was forecast to rise 4.5 per cent to 202.0 million tonnes in 2025/26, the second-highest total on record, with output set to increase in Brazil, India and Thailand.
Sugar production in the key Centre-South region was Brazil was forecast to rise to 41.6 million tonnes, up from 39.95 million in the prior season, reflecting a rise in the proportion of cane used to make the sweetener to 50.9 per cent from 48 per cent.
Cane can also be used to produce biofuel ethanol.
Global consumption was seen rising by 1.2 per cent to 198.3 million tonnes in 2025/26, the same growth rate as the previous season.
Green Pool’s forecasts are based on crop year cycles. The balance between production and consumption is then adjusted for unexplained disappearances.
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Source : Business Times
