Thailand Rice exports projected to dip 33% in Q1
Thailand’s rice exports are projected to drop 33% year-on-year in Q1, with an annual decline of 24.2% to 7.5 million tonnes. Key factors include India’s return to white rice exports, global rice output rising by 10 million tonnes, and a stronger baht. Thai rice remains the most expensive, impacting competitiveness in global markets.
Thailand’s rice exports are expected to drop by 33% year-on-year in the first quarter, according to the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Charoen Laothammatas, president of the association, said Thai rice exports are projected to tally 7.5 million tonnes this year, dipping 24.2% from 9.94 million tonnes last year.
The two largest contributors to this downturn are India resuming white rice exports after a two-year hiatus and a global increase in rice production of 10 million tonnes compared with last year.
India recorded its highest rice output in three decades.
In addition, the strengthening of the baht is a significant concern, he said.
Fluctuations in the exchange rate can greatly affect export pricing, potentially resulting in losses for exporters.
Mr Charoen said authorities should stabilise the exchange rate to avoid rapid changes that can create volatility in Thai rice prices.
He said if the US applies a 10% tariff on Thai imports, it could raise Thai rice prices by UScopy00 per tonne, further affecting competitiveness.
Mr Charoen emphasised the government’s role in reducing production costs for farmers, targeting expenses for fertilisers, pesticides and fuel.
He also pushed for the development of rice strains to improve the yield per rai.
Thailand’s rice productivity tallies 400 kilogrammes per rai, the lowest in the world, in contrast with Vietnam’s 800 kg per rai and 1,000 kg per rai in the US.
Without development over the next 2-3 years, Thailand’s rice export volume will decrease, said Mr Charoen.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said in the first two months of 2025, Thai rice exports totalled 1.1 million tonnes, a 32% drop year-on-year, with exports of white rice facing a sharp decline.
Total rice exports should not exceed 2 million tonnes in the first quarter, a 33% decrease year-on-year, he said.
World Market & Trade, a report by the US Department of Agriculture, said India should remain the No.1 rice exporter this year, with a forecast of 22.5 million tonnes, up 26.4% year-on-year.
Thai rice exports are expected to tally 7.5 million tonnes, a decline of 24.2% year-on-year, with Vietnam’s shipments decreasing 17% to 7.5 million tonnes and Pakistan’s exports falling 18.2% to 5.3 million tonnes.
Major importing countries include the Philippines, expected to import 5.4 million tonnes, a gain of 1.9% year-on-year, with Vietnam taking in 3.4 million tonnes, down 10.5%, Nigeria 2.4 million tonnes (unchanged), and China 2.2 million tonnes, an increase of 35%.
Global rice stocks are expected to rise by about 10 million tonnes to 532 million tonnes this year.
Thai rice remains the most expensive, with 5% white rice priced at $415-419 per tonne in February, compared with $393-397 per tonne for Vietnamese grains, $406-410 per tonne for Indian rice and $382-386 per tonne for rice from Pakistan.
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Source : Bangkok Post
