Wheat production likely to rise in 2025 to record 796 million tonnes, rice 543 MT: FAO
The FAO projects global wheat production at 796 million tonnes in 2025, up 1%. Favorable conditions boost rice output, but global grain stocks may fall 1.9%. Adverse weather threatens wheat yields in parts of Europe and the U.S. Meanwhile, 45 countries face food insecurity, with Gaza and Sudan experiencing the worst crises due to conflict.
Global wheat production could reach 796 million tonnes in 2025. This represents an increase of 1 per cent over the previous year. This is according to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)’s new report on global grain production.
Wheat production in the European Union, especially France and Germany, may increase. FAO has projected more wheat sowing in these areas.
However, dry conditions in Eastern Europe and heavy rains in the west could affect wheat yields. Wheat acreage in the US is expected to increase, but there are fears that yields could fall slightly due to the impact of drought on crops in winter.
Paddy production in India and the world is also showing positive trends. FAO expects rice production to reach a record 543 million tonnes in 2024/25. This increase in rice production is driven by good crops in India and favourable weather conditions in Cambodia and Myanmar.
The FAO has raised its forecast for global grain production in 2024 to 2,842 million tonnes, slightly higher than in 2023.
The report also estimates that global cereal use could reach 2,867 million tonnes in 2024/25. This represents an increase of 1 per cent compared to last year. This increase is driven by record consumption of rice.
On the other hand, wheat use is expected to remain stable. The use of wheat as a food may decrease though. At the same time, its use in factories, especially in China, may increase.
FAO expects global grain stocks to fall by 1.9 per cent. In this way, the global grain stock can reach 869.3 million tonnes in 2025. Increased stocks in Russia and Ukraine are expected to be offset by reductions elsewhere.
According to the FAO, the stock-to-use ratio is expected to fall to around 29.9 per cent, but it is still considered to be a satisfactory level. It has also emerged that there will be less business this year, for which the FAO has lowered the forecast to 484.2 million tonnes, which is 5.6 per cent lower than the previous season. The organisation has blamed changes in exports for this.
Food crisis looms over 45 countries
The FAO also released a new report on crop potential and food situation on March 7, 2025. In this, information about the status of 2025 crops has been given. During 2025, deficient rainfall in North Africa could lead to a decline in grain production, while favourable rainfall in southern Africa is expected to boost crop yields after a significant decline in 2024.
In Asia, the situation is mixed. In the Far East, wheat production is expected to increase in 2025 due to better sowing and good weather. But, by contrast, wheat harvests in the Near East could fall below the five-year average due to deficient rainfall from the end of 2024.
Meanwhile, mixed weather conditions in South America and the Caribbean are impacting maize production. The stent disease outbreak in Argentina poses additional danger. Nevertheless, total production is expected to remain above average thanks to good crops in Brazil.
In Central America and the Caribbean, ongoing dry conditions have reduced grain seedlings in Mexico. But favourable weather elsewhere can help crops grow better.
The report also highlighted that 45 countries are in need of food assistance. These include 33 countries in Africa, nine in Asia, two in South America and the Caribbean and one in Europe. According to the report, ongoing conflict and insecurity are giving rise to severe food insecurity.
FAO has also confirmed that people in Gaza (Palestine) and Sudan are facing the greatest food crisis (IPC Phase 5).
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Source: Down to Earth
