VAC: If weather helps, internal food inventory rises 162% in the year
Brazil’s grain end inventories are projected to increase by 162% in 2024/25, reaching 11.2 million tons, driven by a record grain crop. Rice stocks could rise 256% to 1.4 million tons, while soy inventories may hit 2.24 million tons, up 185%. Corn stocks are expected to recover to 5.54 million tons, contingent on favorable climate and export conditions.
In a year of elevation of international food prices and strong pressure from this sector in inflation, Brazilian end inventories should rise 162% this year, compared to the previous one.
At least that is what currently indicate estimates, based on a record grain crop that, in large part, still depends on the climatic conditions of the coming months to realize.
The numbers are from Conab (National Supply Company), but the final stocks – a volume that is left from one crop to another – do not refer to the total grain in the hands of the government agency, but from the entire market.
The 2023/24 crop was one of the tightest in the leftover grain. Final stocks fell to 4.28 million tons, adding the five main Brazilian products (rice, beans, corn, wheat and soy). In 2024/25, this volume rises to 11.2 million.
Some numbers are practically consolidated, such as rice. After a bad crop in 2024, estimates for the current one are 12.1 million tons, the largest in eight years and 14% higher than the previous one.
The final stock of the 2023/24 crop, which for this cereal ended in late February this year, was only 393,000 tons. With the current crop, the volume rises to 1.4 million, an increase of 256%.
The rice numbers are good, but the confirmation of this inventory will depend greatly on the international market, which will define volume to be exported and to be imported by Brazil. The year rice crop ends in February 2026.
International cereal prices, which are more favorable for importation, will be important in this definition. Internally, the behavior of the dollar also influences. A high quotation of the American currency will bring more Brazilian rice to the foreign market.
Final bean stocks, which ended December 2024 in 198,000 tons, are expected to rise to 322,000 this year. The first crop of the legume, already harvested, was good, but the second and third still depend on climate and prices that encourage planting by producers.
Corn, one of the country’s main problems at the moment, due to the fall in the 2023/24 crop’s final stocks to just 2 million tons, is expected to have a higher cereal of cereal in the 2024/25 crop.
The realization of this volume depends on a number of factors. The main thing is the confirmation of the country’s production at 123 million tons in this crop. The safrinha is still being sown, and this is a risk period, mainly due to the climate.
Exports and imports will also influence this final corn inventory scheduled for January 2026, when the 2024/25 crop ends. Conab’s estimate is a left of 5.54 million tons. In previous harvests, it reached up to 15 million.
The wheat scenario improves, with estimates of a 92% increase in inventories, which rise to 1.74 million tons. The realization of this volume, however, depends on the intention to plant the producer, climate and prices.
Soy inventories, due to record production, should reach 2.24 million tons in December, a volume 185% above the same month of 2024, according to Conab. The crop is foreseen in 167.4 million tons, and 60% of the sown area has already been harvested.
Foreign market performance, especially with the 10% rate that China has imposed on the United States soy, can influence this number of inventories.
The total production of grains in Brazil, according to data released on Thursday (13), is expected to reach 328 million tons in Conab calculations. In the IBGE evaluation, the volume will be 324 million.
Cane until early March, the Center South Plants processed 615 million tons of sugarcane in the 2024/25 crop. The volume is 5% lower than the same previous period.
Cane 2 sugar production fell to 39.8 million tons, 5.6% less, and ethanol was 33.9 billion liters, 4% more, according to Unica data.
Eggs The warming of the international market can raise Brazilian exports of this protein to 35,000 tons this year, 1% above the initial projections made by ABPA (Brazilian Association of Animal Protein).
Eggs 2 last year, foreign sales totaled 18,000 tons, but at the best moments of the foreign market for Brazil exports reached 40,000 tons. Brazilian production is expected to add 3.6 million tons in 2025, according to Ricardo Santin, president of ABPA.
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Source : Ruetir
