European wheat output to bounce back
The USDA forecasts global wheat output to rise in 2025–26, led by an 11% production rebound in the EU to 136 million tonnes. Improved weather and soil moisture in Germany and France are driving the recovery, despite some dryness spreading eastward. Global exports are expected at 214.2 million tonnes, with Russia and the EU fiercely competing for top spot.
SASKATOON — Wheat production is expected to rebound in 2025-26 in the world’s second largest exporting region.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the European Union to produce 136 million tonnes of the crop, an 11 per cent increase from last year and three per cent above the five-year average.
The satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index shows better-than-normal conditions for much of the EU.
Heavy autumn rainscaused some flooding and plant loss but also recharged soil moisture reserves throughout much of Europe.
“In the largest EU wheat-producing countries of Germany and France, weather has been considerably better than it was last season when excessive rains reduced yields,” the USDA stated in its May World Agricultural Production report.
However, additional moisture would be welcome in those two countries because dryness has developed and is spreading into Poland, Hungary, Czechia and Slovakia.
The USDA also provided updates on the other major wheat exporters.
Australia’s production is forecast at 31 million tonnes, down nine per cent from last year and eight per cent below the five-year average.
“Persistent below-average precipitation throughout the month of April in Western Australia, South Australia and southern New South Wales has negatively affected the root zone soil moisture,” it said.
Wheat planting in Australia begins in April and continues through June. Harvest begins in October and wraps up in February 2026.
Canada’s production is forecast at 36 million tonnes, up three per cent from last year and 12 per cent above the five-year average.
“Despite improved drought conditions at the beginning of this year’s spring wheat planting compared to last year, 37 per cent of agricultural lands remain classified as abnormally dry or in moderate to severe drought in the April 2025 Canada Drought Monitor,” said the USDA.
Canada is the world’s third largest wheat exporter behind Russia and the EU.
Russia’s 2025-26 wheat production is forecast at 83 million tonnes, up two per cent from last year but three per cent below the five-year average.
An estimated 37 percent of Russia’s winter wheat crop was rated in poor condition in late November when the crop went dormant, but that number fell to five per cent by the time it emerged from dormancy in mid to late March.
The fate of the crop hinges on May-June weather, with harvest beginning in July.
Soil moisture conditions are “predominantly favourable” across Russia’s major spring wheat growing regions. Planting is ahead of last year’s pace. Harvest will begin in late August.
Global wheat exports are forecast at 214.2 million tonnes, the third highest level on record.
“Competition is expected to remain fierce between Russia and the European Union for trade year 2025-26, with both having larger crops,” said the USDA.
Russia will maintain its spot as the world’s largest exporter, shipping out an estimated 45 million tonnes of the crop, up from 43.5 million tonnes for the current crop year.
EU sales are expected to rebound to 34 million tonnes, up 28 per cent from a disappointing 2024-25 campaign.
Canada’s exports of all wheat are forecast to remain static at 27 million tonnes.
Egypt is forecast to be the world’s largest importer, purchasing 13 million tonnes of the crop.
“Egypt continues to implement its long-standing bread subsidy program, while the private sector also accounts for a significant portion of imports,” the USDA said in its Grain: World Markets and Trade report.
Indonesia will take second spot, importing an estimated 12 million tonnes of the crop to support its growing milling industry.
The EU is expected to capture third place with 9.5 million tonnes of imports, down from 10.7 million tonnes last year as domestic production recovers.
China’s imports are forecast to rebound somewhat to six million tonnes, up from an estimated 3.3 million tonnes this year. However, that would still be a far cry from the 13.6 million tonnes it purchased in 2023-24.
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Source : The Western Producer
