India, Brazil Boost Global Sugar Output Amid Price Trends
Global sugar production is forecast to rise sharply in 2025-26, reaching 189.3 million tonnes, led by India’s 25% output jump to 35.3 million tonnes and Brazil’s record 44.7 million tonnes. This surge will offset declines in the EU and US, pushing ending stocks to 41.18 million tonnes and potentially pressuring global prices despite rising consumption.
Kedia Advisory – Global sugar production is expected to surge in the 2025-26 marketing year, led by a strong rebound in India and record output in Brazil, according to the USDA. India’s sugar production is forecast to rise over 25% to 35.3 million tonnes, supported by favourable weather and expanded cultivation. Brazil is projected to produce a record 44.7 million tonnes. This growth will offset production declines in the EU and the US. Global sugar output is estimated at 189.3 million tonnes, while consumption is set to rise to 177.92 million tonnes. Despite falling exports from the EU and Thailand, global ending stocks are projected to rise due to increased supplies in India and China.
Key Highlights
# India’s sugar output to rise 25% to 35.3 million tonnes.
# Brazil set for record 44.7 million tonnes sugar production.
# Global sugar output to hit 189.3 million tonnes in 2025-26.
# EU sugar output to fall 9% due to lower beet area.
# Ending stocks seen rising to 41.18 million tonnes globally.
Global sugar prices may see pressure in the upcoming 2025-26 season as production surges, led by key producers India and Brazil. According to the latest USDA report, the world’s total sugar output is projected to rise by 8.6 million tonnes, reaching 189.3 million tonnes. This growth, coupled with steady consumption, is expected to influence global pricing dynamics.
India, the second-largest sugar producer, is forecast to rebound strongly, with production jumping over 25% to 35.3 million tonnes from 28 million tonnes the previous year. This is attributed to favourable weather and an expansion in cane-growing areas. Increased supply is also likely to support both higher exports and rising domestic stocks.
Brazil, the global leader in sugar output, is expected to hit a record 44.7 million tonnes due to higher cane yields. However, a greater share of cane is being diverted to ethanol, adjusting the sugar/ethanol mix to 49:51, slightly down from the previous year. Nonetheless, exports are expected to remain strong.
Thailand is also forecast to see a modest 2% production rise, although exports may fall due to competition. In contrast, the EU is expected to see a 9% drop in production, largely due to reduced sugar beet planting, especially in France and Germany. The US is also likely to witness a marginal decline, while Australia could hit a decade-low output.
Overall, rising supplies from Asia and South America are expected to offset declines in Europe and the US, easing concerns of tightness in the global sugar market.
Finally,
A robust supply outlook from India and Brazil is set to stabilize global sugar markets, even as regional declines in the EU and US temper the overall bullish momentum.
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Source : Investing.com
