Sugar output to rebound in 2025-26: ISMA
India’s sugar production is projected to rebound to over 29.5 million tonnes in 2025–26, up from a five-year low this season, says ISMA. Improved cane planting and favorable weather, including a strong monsoon forecast, support this recovery. Ethanol diversion remains significant, with 3.4 MT sugar set aside for biofuel. Sufficient carryover stock ensures early-season domestic demand.
India’s sugar output is expected to rebound in 2025-26 to over 29.5 MT, driven by improved cane planting and favorable weather, says ISMA. Despite a 5-year low this season, sufficient stocks and strong monsoon forecasts support recovery. Ethanol diversion and exports also remain key factors.
Industry has projected a significant recovery in India’s sugar output in the 2025-26 (October-September) season, from a projected a 5-year low at 29.5 million tonne (MT) in 2024-25.
“Sugarcane planting has improved in key producing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka, supported by favorable weather conditions and last year’s monsoon season enhanced cane planting, setting the stage for an on-time start of the crushing season in October 2025,” Deepak Ballani, director general, Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) told FE.
The anticipated increase in sugar production in the 2025-26 season would ensure sufficient supply for both domestic consumption and ethanol production, according to Ballani. The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast an ‘above-normal’ southwest monsoon for 2025, which is crucial for sugarcane cultivation.
Despite lower-than-expected production in the current season, ISMA has stated carry forward stock for the next season on October 1, 2025 will be in the range of 5.2 – 5.3 MT which would be sufficient to meet domestic demand for the first two month of 2025-26 season.
The current sugar season commenced with opening stock of 8 MT on October 1, 2024.
While the main sugar crushing season is over with closure of 534 units across key growing states, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are expected to resume operations in June- July 2025 for a special season.
ISMA would release preliminary sugar production estimates for 2025-26 season in July or August. These estimates are based on satellite imagery and field surveys conducted in June, providing an early assessment of sugarcane acreage and crop conditions, Ballani said.
The sugar production by mills, net of ethanol diversion, is projected to fall by 7% on year to a five-year low of 29.5 MT in the current season 2024-25 season (October-September) attributed to lower recovery rate because of inadequate monsoon rainfall in 2023, and red-rot diseases reported in parts of Uttar Pradesh which has impacted yield, according to trade and government officials.
This excludes 3.3 – 3.4 MT of sugar which would be diverted for the ethanol production in the current season. In the 2023-24 season only 2.15 MT of sugar was diverted for biofuel production.
The industry has projected the domestic demand of sweetener at 28 MT in the current season while exports of sugar is projected at around 0.9 MT.
After restricting the sweetener exports in 2023-24 season, the government in January, 2025 had allowed the exports of one MT of sugar in the ongoing 2024-25 season, after taking into consideration domestic availability and diversion towards ethanol production.
The government earlier in the month had approved a 4% hike in fair and remunerative price (FRP) of sugarcane to be paid to farmers by the mills for the 2025-26 sugar season (October-September) to Rs 355/quintal.
To Read more about Sugar Industry continue reading Agriinsite.com
Source : Financial Express
