USDA did not change wheat production forecast for Ukraine
The USDA projects global wheat production for MY 2025/26 at 808.5 million tons, slightly up from last season. Exports are forecast at 214.33 million tons, while ending stocks drop to 262.76 million tons. Production in Ukraine and the U.S. remains unchanged. Russia’s stocks fall by 2 million tons. China’s wheat stocks rise to 124.6 million tons.
USDA forecasts world wheat production in MY 2025/26 at 808.5 million tons (+0.07 million tons compared to last season), according to the USDA report for June.
The forecast for world wheat exports is 214.33 million tons (+1.34 million tons). Experts have lowered the forecast for ending wheat stocks in the world to 262.76 million tons (-2.97 million tons).
The forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine has not changed – 23 million tons, exports will be at 16.5 million tons, ending stocks unchanged – 1.49 million tons.
The forecast for the wheat harvest for the USA is unchanged – 52.28 million tons. Estimated exports – 22.45 million tons (+0.68 million tons), ending stocks – 24.45 million tons (-0.67 million tons).
Forecast for major wheat exporters for MY 2025/26:
| Country | Yield, million tons | Export, million tons | Stocks, million tons |
| Argentina | 20 (0) | 13 (0) | 4,65 (0) |
| Australia | 31 (0) | 25 (0) | 4,32 (0) |
| Canada | 36 (0) | 27 (0) | 4,39 (0) |
| EU | 136,5 (+0,55) | 34,5 (+0,5) | 12,91 (+0,05) |
| Russia | 83 (0) | 45 (0) | 9,39 (-2) |
USDA analysts forecast wheat production in China in the MY 2025/26 at 142 million tons, estimated imports at 6 million tons, and ending stocks at 124.6 million tons (+0.7 million tons).
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
