India to harvest record 117.5 mln tonnes of wheat
India is projected to harvest a record 117.5 million tons of wheat in the 2025/26 season, up from 113.3 million tons last year, due to favorable monsoon conditions, according to FAS USDA. Despite higher output, exports will likely remain restricted due to uncompetitive pricing. Wheat exports are expected at just 250,000 tons, with import duties remaining at 40%.
Favorable weather conditions and abundant monsoon rains will allow India to harvest a record wheat crop in the 2025/2026 season – 117.5 million tons, the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (FAS USDA) predicts. In the last season, which ended in March 2025, the gross harvest was 113.292 million tons.
Despite the increase in the harvest, the ban on the export of wheat and its processed products will most likely remain, FAS USDA predicts. Trade sources say that the export prospects are weak, since Indian wheat prices are significantly higher than world prices, and are uncompetitive even for neighboring markets. Wheat and its processed product exports will most likely be limited to neighboring Nepal and Bhutan. FAS USDA estimates the volume of Indian wheat exports in the 2025/2026 season at 250 thousand tons (186 thousand tons last season).
Import duties on wheat are also likely to remain at 40%, effectively banning imports.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
