Ukraine begins wheat harvest with moderate yields and potential for price increases
Ukraine has begun its winter wheat harvest, starting in Odesa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson. Early yields are modest at 2.1–2.15 t/ha, but may improve with continued favorable weather. Current wheat prices are around \$210/t (CPT-port), with expectations of \$230–240/t by autumn and possibly \$250–260/t by winter due to global supply concerns and poor harvests in major exporting countries.
The winter wheat harvesting campaign has begun in Ukraine. The first farms to join the harvest were the farms of Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson regions. Initial yield indicators remain at a low level. This was reported by the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, created within the VAR.
“The first results are not impressive yet — the average yield is about 2.1–2.15 t/ha. But this is only the beginning of the campaign, and under favorable weather conditions we predict an increase in average indicators,” analysts note. Weather conditions remain favorable for continuing the harvest, since precipitation is not forecast for the current and next week, so work in the fields will continue without delay.
“However, in the grain market, traders’ activity is currently focused on barley and rapeseed. Ships with wheat are expected to start entering ports around July 15-18, so the market is still relatively calm,” the PUSK adds.
Wheat prices are currently fluctuating around $210/t for the third class on a CPT-port basis. Analysts expect a gradual increase to $230-240/t in the fall, and the peak in prices may fall in December-February, when the cost may reach $250-260/t. There are also signs of supply reduction on the world market.
“The US and HA, as key exporters, have serious problems with the harvest. This creates the potential for further growth in world prices. If the losses are confirmed, we may see $230-240 per ton in August-September,” experts believe.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
