Wheat Pulling Back as USDA Raises Production
Wheat futures fell as USDA raised U.S. production to 1.929 billion bushels, driven by higher spring wheat and yield estimates. Winter wheat output dropped on reduced acreage. Despite a 25 mbu export boost, U.S. ending stocks were trimmed to 890 mbu. Global stocks fell to 261.52 MMT. France’s crop improved, with 68% rated good/excellent.
The wheat complex is showing weakness with a larger than expected US production number reported on Friday. Chicago SRW wheat is trading with 6 to 7 cent losses on Friday. KC HRW contracts are slipping back with midday weakness of 7 to 8 cents. MPLS spring wheat is showing losses of 10 to 11 cents in most contracts on Friday’s midday.
Crop Production data from this morning showed all wheat production hiked by 8 mbu to 1.929 mub, as yield was raised by 1 bpa from last month to 52.6. Winter wheat production was dropped by 37 mbu to 1.345 bbu on a drop to acreage. Spring wheat came in above estimates at 503.6 mbu, with durum at 79.7 mbu.
The larger US production and increased carryover (851 mbu +10) was offset by an increase to exports by 25 mbu to 850 mbu. That cut the stocks estimate for new crop by 8 mbu to 890. World wheat stock for the end of 2025/26 were down 1.24 MMT from last month at 261.52 MMT. That came as Canadian stocks were cut on a 1 MMT reduction to production.
FranceAgriMer shows the soft wheat crop from France at 68% gd/ex, up 1 point from last week, with harvest at 36%.
Jul 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.50 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,
Sep 25 CBOT Wheat is at $5.47 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,
Jul 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.14, up 8 1/2 cents,
Sep 25 KCBT Wheat is at $5.27 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,
Jul 25 MGEX Wheat is at $6.22, down 1 cent,
Sep 25 MGEX Wheat is at $6.21 3/4, down 10 cents .
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Source : Nasdaq.com
