Turkmenistan reports record wheat harvest, but international estimates are much lower
Turkmenistan claims a wheat harvest of over 1.4 million tons for 2025/26, crediting its agrarian policies and higher procurement prices. However, the USDA estimates only 600,000 tons, citing poor yields. While officials say domestic demand is met, continued imports from Kazakhstan and Russia raise doubts about self-sufficiency. The data gap underscores questions over reporting accuracy and production realities.
Turkmenistan’s farmers have completed the harvesting campaign and handed over more than 1.4 million tons of wheat to the state. This was reported by official Turkmen media, emphasizing that the country has fully fulfilled its obligations to produce grain. President Serdar Berdimuhamedov congratulated the farmers on the achievement, calling it the result of the selfless work of farmers, machine operators and scientists. According to him, such indicators are evidence of the success of the country’s agrarian policy and the preservation of agricultural traditions.
This year, 690 thsd ha were allocated for wheat, and the harvesting campaign started on June 4. The authorities say that the harvested volume is enough to meet domestic demand. An additional incentive for producers was the increase in the state purchase price for wheat, which was introduced from the 2024 harvest.
At the same time, the July forecast of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) significantly differs from official data from Turkmenistan. According to American analysts, the country’s gross wheat harvest in the 2025/26 season will be only 600,000 tons – half the amount announced by the authorities. This decrease is explained by a sharp drop in yield – to 0.71 t/ha compared to 1.06 t/ha last season.
At the same time, according to USDA data, the area sown with wheat in Turkmenistan is 850,000 ha, which is significantly more than announced in official sources. Despite claims of a record harvest, the country continues to import significant amounts of wheat and flour, in particular from Kazakhstan and Russia.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
