Farmers in Russia’s Chernozem region forecast worst harvest since 2022
Russia’s 2025 farming season may be the worst since 2022, especially in the Chernozem region, due to high production costs and weak export profitability. Wheat exports fell short of quotas, while prices and yields dropped. Farmers are shifting to oilseeds, but rising input costs and export challenges threaten overall profitability.
The 2025 season could be the worst for farmers in Russia’s Chernozem region and other key agricultural areas since 2022, according to the analytical firm Agrospiker. Rising production costs and low export profitability are to blame, with analysts stating that growth in the sector’s gross output is impossible under current conditions, reports Kommersant-Chernozemye.
Agrospiker’s head, Vitaly Shamaev, speaking at the IX Central Russian Economic Forum, highlighted that farmers failed to meet the wheat export quota of 10.6 million tons, shipping only 7 million tons abroad. Wheat prices in Novorossiysk dropped from 18 to 15 rubles (0,19 USD) per kg, with a strong ruble further hindering exports. “The harvest won’t exceed last year’s by 20%, and prices have already collapsed,” Shamaev noted. Production costs, which surged by 23.5% in 2022 per Rosstat data, continue to rise.
Agricultural exports account for 75% of domestic consumption, financing over 50% of the sector. However, unprofitable exports, sanctions, tariffs, and tight monetary policy are expected to reduce grain yields. Meanwhile, leguminous and oilseed crops are gaining ground, nearing 50% of the sector’s output, though they cannot offset grain losses. Local agribusiness representatives, like Alexander Evseev from Voronezh’s AgroTech-Garant Group, confirm rising costs and falling prices, expecting no revenue growth.
Nikolay Slauk, CEO of Voronezh’s Niva LLC, pointed to increasing costs for fuel, crop protection, wages, and spare parts, compounded by a growing labor shortage, which will likely shrink production. Sergey Goncharov, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences and Development Director at AgroLiga Plant Breeding Center, noted a shift from grains to oilseeds like sunflower, soybean, rapeseed, and niche crops such as flax or camelina, driven by market conditions and state regulations, mirroring trends in countries like Argentina and Brazil.
Chernozem’s distance from seaports encourages oilseed processing development. “Exporting high-value-added products takes priority over raw material sales,” Goncharov said. However, rising costs and declining profitability continue to challenge Russian farmers.
About Chernozem Region: Chernozem, meaning “black soil” in Russian, refers to a fertile agricultural region in central and southern Russia known for its rich, dark soil ideal for farming. Spanning areas like Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk, and Tambov, it is a key hub for grain and oilseed production.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
