Possible Decline in Wheat Production in India, Says Agriculture Minister
India’s wheat area and production have grown steadily, but yield gains remain sluggish, with CAGR at just 0.46% from 2020–21 to 2024–25. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan warned climate change, water scarcity, and rising temperatures could cut output, urging heat-tolerant, water-efficient, and biofortified varieties to safeguard future food security.
Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan has underlined both the achievements and the looming challenges in India’s wheat production. Speaking at a national consultation on wheat and barley in Gwalior, he highlighted the risks posed by climate change, water scarcity, and rising temperatures, stressing that there is a real probability of reduced wheat output in the coming years unless resilient measures are adopted.
According to data from the Department of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare (DA&FW), India’s wheat crop has shown moderate growth over the last five years. The sown area increased from 311.25 lakh hectares in 2020-21 to 327.61 lakh hectares in 2024-25 (3rd Advance Estimates), reflecting a CAGR of 1.29%. Wheat production rose from 1095.86 lakh tonnes to 1175.07 lakh tonnes during the same period, growing at a CAGR of 1.76%. Yield growth, however, has been relatively slower, moving from 3521 kg/ha to 3587 kg/ha, with a CAGR of only 0.46%, highlighting productivity concerns despite expansion in area and production.
Wheat Crop Performance in India (All India, Rabi Season)
| Year | Area (Lakh Ha) | Production (Lakh Tonnes) | Yield (Kg/Ha) |
| 2020-21 | 311.25 | 1095.86 | 3521 |
| 2021-22 | 304.59 | 1077.42 | 3537 |
| 2022-23 | 314.01 | 1105.54 | 3521 |
| 2023-24 | 318.33 | 1132.92 | 3559 |
| 2024-25* | 327.61 | 1175.07 | 3587 |
| CAGR (2020-21 to 2024-25) | 1.29% | 1.76% | 0.46% |
Source: DA&FW; 2024-25 data based on 3rd Advance Estimates
The Minister recalled that India once depended on wheat imports under the PL-480 agreement with the United States, but today stands among the world’s leading producers. He credited farmers, scientists, and policy support under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership for helping India achieve record harvests. Over the last decade, total crop production has increased by nearly 44%, with wheat making notable gains.
However, Chouhan cautioned that sustaining these levels is becoming increasingly difficult. “Wheat is facing multiple challenges, and we must ensure that production does not fall,” he said. He stressed the need for developing new varieties that can withstand higher temperatures, require less water, and provide better nutritional quality. India’s research institutions have already released biofortified wheat varieties and are working on reducing gluten content to meet consumer needs while addressing production concerns.
“India’s food security depends on ensuring that wheat production not only avoids decline but continues to grow despite climate uncertainties,” Chouhan said, urging collaboration between scientists, policymakers, and farmers.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
