India’s net sugar production may top 31 million tonnes in 2025-26 season
India’s sugar sector expects 36 mt of sucrose-based output for 2025-26, enabling 1 mt of exports while keeping 6 mt closing stocks, says JK Group’s Praful Vithalani. He urges a 20 percent MSP hike to ₹37/kg and ethanol diversion of 5 mt. ISMA projects 28 mt domestic use, growing 1.5–2 percent CAGR through 2030, with institutional demand dominating.
As gross sugar (in terms of sucrose) production in the next season, starting October, is likely to be 36 million tonnes (mt), the government can comfortably allow 1 mt for export. it can still ensure a higher closing stock of 6 mt in 2025-26 against the expected closing stock of 4.5 mt in the 2024-25 season, said Praful Vithalani, Chairman of trading firm Jagjivan Keshavji (JK) group.
Speaking to businessline, Vithalani said: “According to our company’s estimates, sugar consumption is of 28.8 million tonnes in the 2024-25 season and the expected closing stock as of September 30, 2025 will be 4.5 mt.”
He said the consensus is that in next season (2025-26), 36 mt of sugar (in terms of sucrose) production is expected. “We feel 31 mt of sucrose be used for sugar production, which includes allowing 1 mt for exports comfortably, though there is no parity (now with global price). This will also ensure 6 mt of closing stock as on September 30, 2026,” Vithlani said.
Asked about the balance 5 mt from the gross production, he said it needs to be diverted towards ethanol. Vithalani also sought increase in the minimum selling price (MSP) of sugar by at least 20 per cent from Rs 31/kg to Rs 37/kg, to protect farmers, sugar industry as well as other stakeholders in the sector.
3 major demands
At the annual sugar event of the Indian Sugar and Bio-energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) held last week, the industry body’s president Gautam Goel had placed three major demands —hike in sugar MSP, upward revision of ethanol price and export permit for 2 mt of sugar —before the Food Minister Pralhad Joshi.
Though, Joshi did not commit anything, he assured appropriate decision at right time safeguarding interests of all the three stakeholders —sugarcane farmers, consumers and mills.
Based on the current crop acreage and the conditions of the standing crop, businessline has estimated sugarcane production in 2025-26 to jump 8 per cent to 487 mt. The Agriculture Ministry is likely to release first advance estimates of crops production, including that of sugarcane, in the first week of October.
Offtake pegged at 28 mt
Meanwhile, ISMA has released a report on sugar consumption during the event and according to it the consumption in the country is estimated at 28 mt in current season (October-September), marking a 10 per cent increase from 2018-19 level. Domestic sales of sugar is controlled by the government through a monthly release order system, and the allocation in 2024-25 season is 27.55 mt. While some mills had violated their quota by selling more than allotted quantity, there are also others who could not sell the sugar within the month and sought extension of deadline.
The ISMA report said that overall sugar consumption in India is projected to grow steadily at a 1.5-2 per cent CAGR from 2024-25 to 2029-30, driven primarily by growth in end-use industries. Institutional sugar consumption is expected to maintain dominance, with retail consumption showing relatively flat growth amidst health trends and diabetes awareness. Within institutional segments, beverages expected to continue moderated growth, alongside growing demand for ice cream and confectionery after the GST reduction on confectionery items.
Other processed foods are expected to face pressure from sugar reduction initiatives but benefit from reduced GST from 12-18 per cent to 5 per cent while HoReCa (hotel, restaurant, catering) consumption is projected to increase with rising incomes, it said.
The share of institutional buyers in total consumption has increased to 60-65 per cent in 2023-24 from 50-55 per cent in 2018-19. The report also said that per capita consumption stagnant at 19-20 kg (pure sugar) or 23-25 kg (including alternatives). But the government’s quota system and weather dependencies contribute to year-on-year volatility in consumption.
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Source : The Hindu Business line
