Bangladesh wheat imports to rise amid declining production and growing demand
Bangladesh will import 6.7 million tonnes of wheat in MY 2025/26 due to declining domestic output of 1.05 million tonnes and rising demand from food, industrial, and feed sectors. High rice prices boost flour consumption. Experts warn long-term import dependence threatens food security, urging resilient varieties and disease control measures.
Bangladesh is set to deepen its reliance on wheat imports in the MY 2025/26 due to declining domestic production and steady consumption growth. According to the USDA’s Grain and Feed Annual Report, wheat imports are projected to reach 6.7 million tonnes, a 7.5% increase from the previous season. This surge is driven by heightened demand from local food processors, stable international prices, and reliable global supplies. Wheat, the second most popular staple after rice, serves as an alternative amid high rice prices, further boosting demand for flour.
The Bangladeshi government plans to import up to 700,000 tonnes of wheat from the United States, with agreements for 220,000 tonnes already finalized as of August 2025. The private sector, which imported around 5.8 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year, with the government covering the rest, will continue to dominate trade. State purchases aim to stock public granaries for social programs, facilitated through international tenders or government-to-government deals. For 2024/25, the import estimate has been revised to 6.24 million tonnes based on data from the Ministries of Finance and Agriculture, reflecting steady trade growth.
Domestic wheat production continues to decline: for 2025/26, forecasts indicate a harvested area of 290,000 hectares and production of 1.05 million tonnes, down 3.3% and 2.8% from 2024/25 estimates. Revised data for 2024/25 show 300,000 hectares and 1.08 million tonnes. Contributing factors include a lack of improved varieties, outbreaks of wheat blast disease that significantly reduce yields, and farmers shifting to more profitable fruits and vegetables during the Rabi season (planted November–December 2025, harvested March–April 2026). Bangladesh primarily grows soft wheat with low protein content, suitable for bread, biscuits, and cakes, unlike hard wheat used for pasta.
Wheat consumption for food, seed, and industrial needs in 2025/26 is expected to rise to 7.7 million tonnes, up 1.3% from 2024/25’s 7.6 million tonnes (a 7% increase from 2023/24). High rice prices for over a year have driven households to switch to flour, while industries producing biscuits, pasta, and baked goods are expanding for domestic and export markets. In the 2024/25 marketing year, wheat product exports generated $225 million, including bread, pastries, biscuits, and pasta shipped to Saudi Arabia, Oman, Malaysia, the UAE, the UK, and the US.
Feed use of wheat is projected at 300,000 tonnes in 2025/26, primarily for poultry, aquaculture, and cattle (4–5% flour in rations). For 2024/25, the estimate remains steady at 280,000 tonnes. Agricultural economist Dr. Jahangir Alam told the Daily Sun: “Declining local production due to diseases and shifting crop patterns, coupled with rising demand from high rice prices and changing consumption habits, makes imports critical. Stable global prices help, but long-term dependency poses a serious threat to food security.” Experts urge investment in resilient varieties and disease control to mitigate risks.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
