Ukraine : The increase in rapeseed oil exports does not compensate for even half of the lost revenue from potential rapeseed exports.
Rapeseed exports in September dropped by more than 50% year-on-year, while rapeseed oil exports rose to 82,000 tonnes from 36,000 tonnes, only partially offsetting lost revenue. Low processor prices and anticipation of duty-free trade are restraining producer sales, forcing many farmers to reconsider winter sowing plans.
Rapeseed exports in September fell more than half compared to last year, and the increase in rapeseed oil supplies only slightly offset the revenue loss. Producers are holding back sales in anticipation of the return of duty-free trade, while low purchase prices from processors are creating intense competition between producers and processors, according to Spike Brokers.
“Rapeseed exports in September are more than half of last year’s level. The increase in rapeseed oil exports to 82,000 tonnes, compared to 36,000 tonnes last year, doesn’t even compensate for half of the lost revenue from potential rapeseed exports. This indicates producers are restrained in their sales and are hoping for the duty-free regime to be reinstated. The question remains: who will win—the producer or the processor?” brokers note.
According to Spike Brokers, a significant number of farmers are forced to revise their winter rapeseed sowing plans, potentially reducing the area they plant.
The spot price of rapeseed for 30-day delivery fell $6 including VAT compared to Friday, September 20, to $581. This is the price for the basic quality 8/2/48 non-GMO, adjusted for transportation costs from the plant to the CPT base in Odessa.
Current purchase prices of processors are $45-50 including VAT lower than the potential export price if duty-free sales are restored.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
