Thailand -Rice exports likely to hit annual goal
Thailand’s rice exports are set to reach 7.5 million tonnes in 2025, though export value may fall 40% due to global oversupply and weaker demand. Prices for 5% white rice are around $340/tonne, down from $500 last year. Strong demand persists for Thai hom mali rice, especially in the US.
Rice exports are on track to achieve the target of 7.5 million tonnes this year, although the value is anticipated to drop by 40% from last year, says the Thai Rice Exporters Association.
Chookiat Ophaswongse, honorary president of the association, said for the first nine months of this year, Thailand exported more than 5.9 million tonnes of rice, based on export permission data.
He said achieving the annual export goal would require average monthly exports of more than 500,000 tonnes during the final quarter.
If Thailand manages to ship 600,000 tonnes per month during that period, total exports could reach 8 million tonnes.
However, this year’s global rice market is much worse than last year’s, with heightened competition amid abundant supply and decreasing demand, said Mr Chookiat.
Major rice importers in the region such as Indonesia and the Philippines have paused their imports because of sufficient domestic supplies and the need to stabilise local rice markets.
He said the Philippines plans to import 300,000 tonnes of rice in January 2026, then suspend imports for three months from February to April.
These factors have contributed to a decline in rice prices on the global market. Thailand’s 5% white rice is priced at US$340 per tonne, while Myanmar’s rice is $310, Pakistan’s rice $330, India’s grains about $350 and Vietnam’s rice $360.
In the first nine months of this year, Vietnam exported 6.8 million tonnes of rice and India 18 million tonnes.
“Thailand is the world’s third-largest rice exporter. India is expected to export 22-23 million tonnes and Vietnam about 8.5 million tonnes this year,” said Mr Chookiat.
He anticipated Thai rice prices would settle around $340 per tonne this year, falling from an average of $500 per tonne in 2024.
Thailand’s export volume is projected to decrease from 9.9 million tonnes last year, with the export value dropping by about 40% year-on-year.
Mr Chookiat said exports of Thai hom mali rice and parboiled rice continue to perform well this year.
Demand for Thai hom mali rice in the US market has been particularly strong, as buyers rushed to stock up amid concerns over potential impacts from the Trump tariffs, he said.
The US imports around 830,000 tonnes of rice from Thailand annually, with 650,000 tonnes of that hom mali.
In 2024, Thailand exported 9.95 million tonnes of rice, up 13% year-on-year, generating 226 billion baht (roughly $6.43 billion), an increase of 27%.
Mr Chookiat said government efforts to stabilise rice prices are struggling due to a global market downturn.
During price declines, he said importing countries tend to purchase only what is necessary.
“Global rice prices have fallen sharply. The Philippines even banned rice imports to prevent domestic prices from collapsing,” said Mr Chookiat.
“Next year, there seems to be no positive factors for Thailand’s rice market, as favourable rainfall conditions in major producing countries such as Thailand, Myanmar and even Cambodia have resulted in good water supplies.”
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Source : Bangkok Post
