Frost, rain threaten Argentina’s potentially record wheat crop
Late-season frosts hit southern Argentina’s wheat regions, raising concerns over the 2025-26 crop outlook. While damage assessment is ongoing, high soil moisture may limit losses. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange maintains its 22 Mt production forecast, though recent rains have slowed harvest. Early yields in northern areas are above expectations.
LATE-SEASON frosts were reported in fields across the southern wheat-growing regions of Argentina last week, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, dampening the 2025-26 production outlook, which was set to challenge the 2021-22 record.
The production impact of low temperatures, which swept through in the aftermath of an intense cold front last weekend, is still being assessed by farmers and agronomists, as is crop damage from the storms and extreme rainfall that accompanied the front.
The latest climate report from the exchange, released on October 16, reported that “although the general feeling is that the main climate risk affecting the current agricultural season will be excessive rainfall, it should be noted that, during the last few weeks, the cooling of the Equatorial Pacific has intensified considerably, both on its Asian margin and on its American margin, reaching a state very close to a weak La Niña”. A continued move in this direction is more likely to lead to a decrease in the intensity and frequency of rainfall in Argentina.
Moisture, humidity, reduce impact
The BAGE advised that the full impact of the frost event is unknown, but wheat crops in the south are currently at a vulnerable growth stage. Nevertheless, the high soil-moisture conditions and elevated ambient humidity may have helped reduce the impact of low temperatures, so it will be necessary to monitor crop evolution in the coming weeks to more accurately assess the true extent of the damage.
Consequently, the BAGE maintains its 2025-26 wheat production forecast of 22 million tonnes (Mt) off a harvested area of 6.7 million hectares (Mha), until any crop damage can be defined. This is up from 18.6Mt last season, off 6.3Mha, and puts this year’s output just 400,000t shy of its record crop of 22.4Mt reaped in 2021-22. The average yield at the current production estimate is 3.28t/ha, compared to 2.95t/ha last year and 3.45t/ha in 2021-22.
However, early last month, the competing Rosario Grains Exchange raised its new-crop production estimate to 23Mt, also off 6.7Mha, for an average yield of 3.43t/ha. The dramatic increase, from its early spring projection of 20Mt, is due to a highly favourable soil-moisture profile following above-average winter and early spring rainfall in most agricultural regions. The forecast ties its own production record of 23Mt set four seasons ago. Industry consultants reportedly told the exchange: “We’ve never seen the wheat look like this.”
The nation received unprecedented precipitation in July and August. Several records were reportedly set in the latter, with the rainfall total in the village of Gancedo in Chaco province the highest in 115 years of historical monthly rainfall records. Excessive falls early in the season also led to waterlogging at seeding time, with the final planted area reportedly reduced by around 400,000ha, more than half of which is in Buenos Aires province.
The final crop condition report from the BAGE was released on October 22, and put the wheat crop at 88 percent good to excellent, down slightly from 90pc a week earlier, but dramatically better than the same time last year, when the crop rating was just 38pc good to excellent. The fair-to-poor proportion remained at 3pc, unchanged week on week, but notably lower than the 38pc recorded a year earlier.
Soil-moisture conditions on October 22 were reported to be 76pc optimal to adequate, up from 73pc seven days earlier and 64pc a year earlier. The proportion of the crop area with excessive moisture decreased from 12pc on October 15 to 5pc a week later, but remained higher than the 2pc logged at the same time in 2024.
Harvest slow to start
The wet weather has also slowed early harvest progress, after headers started rolling in midway through last month. As of October 29, 8.4pc of the wheat area had been harvested, an advance of just 3.1 percentage points over the preceding seven days but still tracking fractionally ahead of the long-term average.
However, following the widespread rains that affected nearly the entire agricultural area, almost a quarter of wheat fields remain temporarily inaccessible, a condition expected to improve dramatically this week. The peak harvest month in Argentina is generally December, with wheat harvest in the far south not winding down until late January.
According to the BAGE, harvesters in the northern agricultural regions continue to report wheat yields above local expectations, resulting in a national average yield of 2.03t/ha to date. Yields will improve as the harvest moves south with crops in Buenos Aires and La Pampa provinces expected to return well above 4t/ha.
On the barley front, the BAGE is forecasting 2025-26 production of 5.3Mt from 1.3Mha, yielding an average of 4.08t/ha. Output in 2024-25 was 5Mt off the same area, putting the average yield at 3.85t/ha. Average production over the past five years was 4.72t/ha from 1.22Mha at 3.87t/ha. Argentina’s barley harvest generally commences around mid-November and concludes in late January.
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Source : Grain Central
