ISMA estimates net sugar production at 309.5 lakh tonnes in 2025-26 season
India’s sugar output for 2025–26 is estimated at 343.5 lakh tonnes before ethanol diversion, with 34 lakh tonnes likely diverted, leaving net production at 309.5 lakh tonnes, ISMA said. Higher output in Maharashtra and Karnataka drives the increase. With strong stocks, ISMA says India can export about 20 lakh tonnes this season.
The Indian Sugar & Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA) has released the first advance estimates of sugar production for the 2025-26 sugar season.
According to ISMA, gross sugar production during the season (Without diversion for ethanol) is expected to be 343.5 lakh tonnes. After accounting for a diversion of estimated 34 lakh tonnes for ethanol, the net sugar production during the season (After diversion for ethanol) is expected at 309.5 lakh tonnes.
1st advance estimates of sugar production for the 2025–26 sugar season
(Figures in Lakh tonnes)
| S. No | States | 2024-25 SS(P) | 2025-26 SS1st Advance estimates (November’25) |
| 1 | Maharashtra | 93.51 | 130.0 |
| 2 | Karnataka | 54.89 | 63.5 |
| 3 | Uttar Pradesh | 101.01 | 103.2 |
| 4 | Others | 46.69 | 46.8 |
| 5 | Gross Total (estimated) | 296.10 | 343.5 |
| 6 | Estimated diversion towards ethanol | 35.01 | 34 |
| 7 | Net sugar production | 261.08 | 309.5 |
As per standard practice, post-monsoon pan-India satellite imagery was captured in the third week of October 2025. Based on this assessment, the total sugarcane acreage in the country for the 2025–26 sugar season is estimated at around 57.35 lakh hectares, compared to 57.11 lakh hectares in 2024–25 — indicating a marginal increase over last year.
The estimated balance sheet for the season 2025-26 SS:
| S.No. | Particulars | 2025-26 SS (E)(Fig. in Lakh tonnes) |
| a | Opening Stock as on 1st Oct’2025 | 50 |
| b | Gross Sugar Production during the Season(Without diversion for ethanol) | 343.5 |
| c | Diversion for ethanol (E) | 34 |
| d | Net Sugar Production during the Season (b-c)(After diversion for ethanol) | 309.5 |
| e | Total Availability (a+d) | 359.5 |
| f | Internal Consumption | 285 |
| g | Closing Stock as on 30th Sept’2026 (e-f) | 74.5 |
The findings were reviewed during the ISMA Executive Committee meeting held on 4th November 2025, which was attended by representatives from sugar-producing states across the country. The discussion covered imagery analysis, field reports on expected yield, sugar recovery, cane drawl percentage, the impact of rainfall in the previous and current seasons, reservoir water availability, anticipated post-monsoon rainfall for 2025, and other relevant factors.
In Maharashtra, the cane area for the 2025–26 sugar season has increased to 14.71 lakh hectares, compared to 13.82 lakh hectares last year, an improvement of about 6%. The overall crop condition this year is notably better, supported by a higher proportion of plant cane and adequate water availability. Rainfall has been abundant, and reservoir levels are sufficient to meet crop requirements. Field observations indicate good to very good crop conditions across most regions.
As per ISMA, consequently, yield and recovery are expected to be higher than last year and the combination of improved yields and expanded cane area is projected to raise gross sugar production (before diversion) to around 130 lakh tons, compared to 93.51 lakh tons last year, an increase of approximately 39%.
In Karnataka, the sugarcane area has increased by about 6% to 6.8 lakh hectares, compared to 6.4 lakh hectares last year. Similar to Maharashtra, favourable rainfall and adequate reservoir levels have enhanced crop conditions, leading to improved sugarcane yield and sugar recovery. Consequently, gross sugar production (before diversion) is projected to rise by around 16%, reaching 63.5 lakh tons compared to 54.89 lakh tons in the 2024–25 sugar season.
“In Uttar Pradesh, the cane area has declined by approximately 3% to 22.57 lakh hectares from 23.30 lakh hectares last season. However, the overall condition of the standing crop is significantly better than last year. Ongoing cane development initiatives at the mill level — including timely interventions and varietal replacement — are expected to minimize red rot and other disease incidences in the 2025–26 sugar season. As a result, both yield and recovery are likely to improve, with gross sugar production (before diversion) estimated at 103.2 lakh tons, compared to 101.01 lakh tons last year. Only minor variations in cane area and production are anticipated in the remaining states,” the ISMA further added in a release.
According to the sugar body, with a comfortable sugar balance, India is well-positioned to export nearly 20 lakh tons this season. ISMA has urged the government to announce the export policy at the earliest, so mills can proactively plan their raw and white sugar production strategies in advance.
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Source : Chinimandi
