Falling palm oil prices are increasing pressure on sunflower oil and seed prices in Ukraine.
Global vegetable oil prices are weakening as palm, rapeseed, and sunflower supplies increase. Palm oil is falling fastest due to weak Indian demand and expectations of higher Indonesian output. Sunflower oil prices in Russia and Ukraine declined sharply, pushing sunflower seed prices lower. Buyers are waiting for stabilization as supply from the Black Sea grows.
Seasonal increases in palm, rapeseed, and sunflower oil supplies are putting upward pressure on vegetable oil prices, leading importers to reduce demand or switch to cheaper palm oil, while traders are taking profits after speculative gains.
The market is being most pressured by the decline in palm oil prices in Malaysia, driven by weak import demand from India and forecasts for a sharp increase in Indonesia’s harvest amid uncertainty over the implementation of the B50 biofuel program in 2026.
December palm oil prices have fallen 4.2% in the past seven days to 4,143 ringgit/t or $988/t (-7.6% in two weeks), adding to pressure on neighbouring markets.
December soybean oil futures on the Chicago exchange fell by 4% on Friday, but since Monday they have risen by 1.6% to $1,090 per ton (-1.4% for the week, -1.7% for the month), despite a sharp speculative rise in soybean quotes by 3.7% over the week on expectations of China resuming soybean purchases from the US.
Amid rising supply, Russian sunflower oil prices fell by $20-30/t to $1,180-1,190/t FOB (for November delivery) over the week, leading to a decline in prices for sunflower oil for delivery to India by $20-30/t to $1,320-1,330/t CIF Mumbai.
Over the week, demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine also fell by $20-30 per ton to $1,230-1,240 per ton for delivery to ports in November-December, as factories stocked up on sufficient volumes of raw materials and increased sales of vegetable oil following a sharp rise in sunflower purchase prices.
In Ukraine, sunflower prices fell by 500-700 UAH/t to 28,200-28,600 UAH/t or $588-595/t excluding VAT (for 50% oil content) with delivery to the plant following a sharp drop in sunflower oil prices, and will continue to fall under pressure from reduced demand.
The large supply of sunflower seeds is creating queues at factories, allowing processors with sufficient stocks to lower their purchase prices.
In the coming weeks, the supply of sunflower oil from the Black Sea region will continue to grow, so buyers will wait for prices to stabilize before resuming active purchases, and low palm oil prices will continue to reduce the premium for sunflower oil on the global market.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
