The global wheat market will reach record levels in 2025/26 MY – IGS
Global wheat production in 2025/26 is forecast at a record 819 Mt, driven by higher output in the EU, Russia and Canada. Consumption also rises to 819 Mt, led by feed demand. Export competition is intensifying as major suppliers boost shipments, keeping prices under pressure amid strong Asian and African import demand.
According to the International Grain Council (IGC), the global wheat harvest in 2025/26 will reach a record 819 million tonnes, up from 800 million tonnes in the previous season. Significant contributions to this growth come from the EU, with a projected 140.4 million tonnes (up 18%), Russia with 85 million tonnes (up 5%), and Canada with 36.6 million tonnes (up 2%). Ukraine maintains production at 25 million tonnes, while Australia, despite an expected 1% harvest decline, has raised its forecast to 33.8 million tonnes.
Global wheat consumption is also growing, reaching 819 million tonnes this season, up 2% from last season. Feed consumption is particularly strong, reaching 155 million tonnes, 3 million tonnes more than in the previous season. Demand is shifting toward Asia and Africa: Sub-Saharan Africa is importing a record 30.7 million tonnes, Mexico is setting a record high of 6.6 million tonnes, and Brazil is purchasing 6.8 million tonnes.
Increased wheat supply is increasing competition among exporters. Russia remains the leading exporter, with 43.4 million tonnes, but shipments may be limited by floating duties and exporter margins. The EU is seeing significant export growth, with 30.5 million tonnes up from 26.1 million tonnes last year, while Australia is reaching a three-year high of 26.3 million tonnes. The US is increasing shipments to 24.5 million tonnes thanks to competitive prices and large contracts with Asian countries.
Analysts expect pressure on prices to continue in the coming months, driven by restocking in Southern Hemisphere suppliers and high production rates in major exporting countries.
International trade in wheat flour will reach a nine-year high of 17.3 million tons, up 1.8 million tons from last season. This increase was driven primarily by an increase in Iraqi imports to 1.7 million tons and record purchases by Syria and sub-Saharan Africa (3.5 million tons).
Among exporters, Turkey is increasing its shipments to 5.3 million tons after lifting restrictions on wheat imports, while Kazakhstan is increasing its exports to an eight-year high of 2.9 million tons thanks to demand from Central and South Asia.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
