World sugar body sees 1.6-mln-tn surplus in 2025-26, from deficit year-ago
The International Sugar Organization forecasts a 1.6-million-tonne global sugar surplus in 2025–26, with output rising to 181.8 million tonnes. Consumption is set at 180.1 million tonnes. Ethanol production reached 122 billion litres in 2025, driven by record US output and a sharp rise in India’s grain-based ethanol production.
MUMBAI – The International Sugar Organization has forecast global sugar surplus of 1.6 million tonnes in 2025-26 (Oct-Sept). For 2024-25, the deficit has narrowed to 2.92 million tonnes from 4.88 million tonnes, driven by better progress of harvest in major southern hemisphere producing countries, the organization said in its quarterly market outlook report.
Sugar output for the current sugar year is estimated to be 181.8 million tonnes, higher from 176.2 million tonnes a year ago, it said. Higher global output can be attributed to anticipation of increase in production in India, Thailand and Pakistan. World consumption is projected to reach 180.1 million tonnes in 2025-26, up from 179.1 million tonnes during the previous year. In 2023-24 global sugar consumptions were at an all time high at 181.2 million tonnes, it said.
In 2025-26, global trade volumes are expected remain steady with exports projected at 64.7 million tonnes, nearly unchanged from a year ago. In August, exports for the current sugar year was projected at 63.89 million tonnes.
“The trade flow outlook for 2025-26 is in surplus, as import demand is estimated at 62.962 mln tonnes, down from 63.768 mln tonnes in August,” the organisation said. By comparison, 2024-25 trade statistics show a negligible surplus with exports reaching 64.74 mln tonnes, it said.
The ending stocks for 2025-26 is estimated at 95.0 million tonnes, compared with 95.2 million tonnes a year ago. The ending stocks-consumption ratio for 2025-26 is estimated to fall to 52.74%, ity said.
ETHANOL
Global ethanol production reached 122.0 billion litres in 2025, up 2.3% from 119.2 billion litres in 2024. Ethanol production in the US is forecast at a record 61.45 billion litres, supported by new trade agreements with the UK, European Union, and others. On the other hand, Brazil’s output is expected to decline to 33.34 billion litres as mills allocated a record-low percentage of cane towards ethanol.
“India represents the year’s most dramatic development, with production surging to 10.5 billion litres from 7.34 billion litres as the country pivots towards grain-based feedstocks (now over 60% of production) to meet its 20% blending target,” the global sugar body said. Meanwhile, European consumption continued to expand to 6.84 billion litres through higher blending targets and increased E10 availability, while Vietnam and Indonesia prepare for E10 and E5 mandates in 2026. E10 is a petrol blend containing up to 10% renewable ethanol that is being widely adopted across Europe to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from road transport.
MOLASSES
The international molasses trade has remained constrained in 2025 by tight global exportable supplies. There is little momentum for higher molasses prices in coming months, it said. Indian exports have been constrained by the export tax imposed in January 2024. Meanwhile, the 50% duty in addition to the applicable common customs tariff rate on molasses imports from Russia and Belarus into the EU starting Jul. 1, 2025 limits interest from EU buyers, the sugar body said. At the same time, import demand by the world’s two dominant markets, the US and the EU, is still expected to weaken in 2025.
In 2026, India’s export tax will be removed but the import tax on Russia and Belarus is unlikely to be scrapped by the EU, the global sugar body said. However, with better production in several key exporters such as North and Central America, and Thailand and Indonesia in Asia, export availability of cane molasses to the world market is set to improve, the organization said.
World molasses exports from key origins for the first nine months of 2025, totalled to 2.55 million tonnes, and have exceeded 2024 exports by 7%, it said. Imports by key destinations in Asia have reached 1.17 mln tonnes in the first nine months of 2025, down 9% from 2024, particularly reflecting far lower imports by Thailand and the Philippines.
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Source : Informist
