November WASDE maintains forecast for 2025-’26 corn use in ethanol
The USDA kept its 2025-26 corn-for-ethanol forecast at 5.6 billion bushels and slightly raised the 2024-25 estimate. U.S. supplies increased on larger beginning stocks, while exports rose sharply. Ending stocks reached 2.2 billion bushels and the average price rose to $4. Global output improved in Mexico and the EU but declined in Egypt.
The USDA maintained its forecast for 2025-’26 corn use in ethanol in its latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, released Nov. 14. The agency revised up its estimate for 2024-’25 corn use in ethanol.
The USDA’s current 2025-’26 corn outlook is for increased supply, exports and ending stocks. Total supply is 144 bushels higher as larger beginning stocks are partially offset by lower production. Beginning stocks are 207 million bushels higher based on the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks report. Corn production is forecast at 16.8 million bushels, down 62 million from September on a 0.7-bushel reduction in yield to 186 bushels per acre. Harvested area for grain is unchanged at 90 million acres.
Total use if forecast up 100 million bushels reflecting a higher export forecast. Exports are raised 100 million bushels to 3.1 billion reflecting shipments to date. According to the USDA, inspection data imply exports set a monthly record during September and again in October. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 44 million bushels to 2.2 billion. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4 per bushel.
The USDA currently predicts 5.6 billion bushels of corn will go to ethanol production for 2025-26, unchanged from the September WASDE. The USDA did not publish a WASDE report in October due to the government shutdown.
The agency now estimates 5.436 billion bushels of corn went to ethanol production for 2024-’25, up slightly from the September estimate of 5.435 billion bushels. Approxixmately 5.489 million bushels of corn went to ethanol production for 2023-’24.
Foreign corn production is forecast higher reflecting increases for Mexico and the European Union that are partly offset by a decline for Egypt. Mexico production is raised reflecting greater area expectations. The EU is higher as an increase for France is partially offset by a reduction for Germany.
Major global trade changes include greater corn exports for the U.S. and South Africa but a reduction for Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Iran, Egypt, Venezuela, and the United Kingdom, but lowered for China, the EU, and Thailand. Foreign corn ending stocks are reduced, mostly reflecting a decline for China that is partly offset by increases for Argentina, Mexico, and Ukraine. Global corn ending stocks are down fractionally to 281.3 million tons.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
