Iran water crisis looms, leap in wheat imports expected
Iran faces a severe sixth-year drought, with rainfall down 89% this autumn and reservoir levels at historic lows. Cloud seeding is being used to induce rain. Agriculture, consuming 88% of water, suffers most—wheat production fell to 13.5 Mt, forcing projected imports of 4–4.5 Mt. Groundwater overextraction and dried lakes worsen shortages, prompting consideration of halving irrigation allocations and upgrading water-use efficiency. Barley and corn output remain relatively stable, with deficits met through imports.
IRANIAN authorities have turned to cloud seeding in an effort to induce much-needed precipitation as the nation battles an unprecedented drought now in its sixth year. The prolonged dry has pushed water levels in many of the country’s reservoirs to record lows, jeopardising drinking water, industrial output, and food production.
The Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization recently reported that rainfall across the country had decreased by about 89 percent compared to the long-term average, making this autumn the driest experienced by Iran in the past 50 years.
Less recharge, more consumption
Steadily decreasing precipitation levels have combined with excessive water consumption, particularly in agriculture, extensive unauthorised groundwater extraction, and a weakness for prestigious but faulty engineering projects, leading to extreme water shortages across the country.
Iran is located in the so-called dry belt of the Earth, and we have faced challenges for a long time, but over the past three decades the temperature has risen by 1.8°C and over the past five years there has been a 30pc reduction in rainfall.
The nation’s capital, Tehran, received only 158mm of rain last year, 42pc below the long-term average. Five major dams that supply drinking water to Tehran are reportedly at critical levels, with one empty and another at less than 8pc of capacity.
Iran’s vice-president and head of the government’s Environmental Protection Agency Shina Ansari recently said: “Iran is located in the so-called dry belt of the Earth, and we have faced challenges for a long time, but over the past three decades the temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees Celsius and over the past five years there has been a 30pc reduction in rainfall.”
Dry storages
According to Abbasali Keykhaei, of the Iranian Water Resources Management Company, 19 major dams nationwide had effectively run dry by the end of October, representing around 10pc of the country’s water storage capacity. The water level in another 19 dams now sits below 15pc.
The cloud-seeding process, which has been used in Iran for many years, involves the spraying of chemical salt particles, such as silver or potassium iodide, into clouds from aircraft to stimulate the release of moisture as rainfall. The first seeding operation of the season was reportedly conducted on November 15 over the Urmia Lake basin in the north-west of the country, close to the border with Turkiye.
Urmia, the nation’s largest lake, has dried out and been reduced to a vast salt bed due to the drought. Just two decades ago, Lake Urmia was the largest lake in the Middle East, and the surrounding economy thrived with hotels and restaurants catering to tourists. Now, boats sit rusted and stranded on the dried lakebed.
The irrigated agricultural land around the lake, which totalled about 300,000ha in the late 1970s, has now expanded to more than 700,000ha. To irrigate this vast expanse of farmland, around 4.5-5 billion cubic metres of water are needed annually. But the region’s water yield is less than 4 billion cubic metres, a significant proportion of which is lost to evaporation.
In other parts of the country, overextraction of groundwater is a critical issue, according to Issa Kalantari, a former agriculture minister who has been warning Iran of the coming crisis for 20 years. “In the Isfahan city basin, we extract 1.1 billion to 1.2 billion cubic metres of water annually from the earth and use it for agriculture.” This excessive groundwater extraction has contributed greatly to the growing land subsidence issues in and around Isfahan.
Substantial groundwater reserves are also being drained by thousands of illegal wells, particularly in the more mountainous regions. Iran has around 8 million hectares of irrigated land, and there are reportedly as many as 1M wells, many of which are unauthorised, that go as deep as 200m to tap the groundwater reserves.
Food crops
Tackling the challenge of food production amid declining water resources is critical. Agriculture accounts for around 88pc of the nation’s water consumption but only produces around 12pc of the country’s GDP. Reducing the amount of water allocated to farmers is under consideration, with some government officials stating that it should be halved to 40B cubic metres per annum.
Other key focal points include upgrading of irrigation systems and equipment to reduce water loss and improve water-use efficiency, as well as persuading farmers to decrease the planting of high water-dependent crops such as rice and watermelons. Abandoning the nation’s goal of food self-sufficiency may be the ultimate price.
Meanwhile, this year’s wheat harvest suffered severely due to the drought conditions. According to the United States Department of Agriculture, production fell from 16 million tonnes (Mt) last year to 13.5Mt this year. However, Ataullah Hashemi, head of the National Syndicate of Iranian Wheat Farmers, said back in August that output had fallen by 5Mt to 11Mt, with government purchases falling by 4.4Mt, or 36pc, to 7.6Mt.
Hashemi expects Iran’s wheat imports will need to be around 4.5Mt in the year ending in March 2026 to meet domestic demand, which is expected to increase to around 17Mt. This compares to the USDA, which pegged this season’s imports at 3Mt, up from 1.2Mt in the previous corresponding period. At the beginning of this year’s harvest, back in April, Iran’s agriculture ministry warned that the country could be forced to import up to 6Mt of wheat this calendar year to meet growing domestic demand.
According to the USDA, feedgrain output was not as severely impacted by the drought, with barley production falling from 3.1Mt to 3Mt and the corn crop unchanged at 1.4Mt. The USDA increased Iran’s feedgrain consumption to 16.4Mt in its November update, compared to 16.6Mt a season earlier. The domestic deficit is expected to be satisfied with corn and barley imports of 9.5Mt and 5.2Mt respectively, compared to 9.8Mt and 5.3Mt last season.
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Source : Grain Central
