Stabilization of sunflower oil prices supports sunflower prices in Ukraine.
Sunflower oil prices have stabilized even as palm and soybean oil fall, with markets anticipating tighter Ukrainian and EU sunflower supply. Ukrainian December port prices held at $1,220–$1,230/t, while CIF Mumbai values were $1,300–$1,310/t. Harvest delays, rain damage, and quality losses support firm seed prices despite strong stocks.
Despite the prolonged decline in palm and soybean oil prices, sunflower oil prices have stabilized, as the market anticipates a decline in sunflower supply in Ukraine and the EU this season. Processors are therefore actively building up stocks in anticipation of a resumption of growth in vegetable oil prices in the future.
During the week, demand prices for sunflower oil in Ukraine remained at $1,220-$1,230/t (-$30/t over the month) for delivery to ports in December, and prices for deliveries to India were at $1,300-$1,310/t CIF Mumbai, although palm oil prices fell by 5.5% amid a decline in exports.
The weather in Ukraine, especially excessive rainfall in the west, is preventing the completion of late crop harvesting, leading to yield losses and a decline in the quality of the harvested sunflower.
As of November 20, 9.01 million tons of sunflower seeds were harvested from 4.74 million hectares or 92% of the area (+2% over the week) in Ukraine with a yield of 1.88 tons/ha (last year, 10.07 million tons were harvested from 97% of the area with a yield of 2.08 tons/ha).
Processors expect that the last million tons of sunflower seeds harvested by farmers will have a high acidity level, so in their calculations they are basing their harvest on a harvest of approximately 9 million tons and are not reducing purchase prices, despite the relatively high stockpiles at factories.
Sunflower purchase prices have increased by 200-300 UAH/t over the week to 28,400-29,000 UAH/t or $590-600/t excluding VAT (for oilseeds 50%) with delivery to the plant, although some plants are experiencing interruptions in acceptance due to constant air raids.
It’s worth noting that while some processors significantly lowered prices last week, while others maintained high prices, all have now leveled off. This means traders don’t expect any fundamental changes in the market in the near future.
Over the week, demand prices for sunflower meal in Ukraine increased by $5/t to $205-210/t with delivery to ports and to $225-230/t with delivery to the western border, supported by a $3-5/t increase in prices for feed barley, wheat and corn.
In the coming weeks, the market will remain in anticipation of the completion of the sunflower harvest in the Black Sea region and rising demand from India for sharply lower palm oil prices, which will stem the price decline. In Russia, 16 million tons of sunflower seeds had been harvested from 85% of the acreage as of November 14, so the harvest potential remains at 17-17.5 million tons, compared to 16.5 million tons last year, despite the harvest in the southwestern region having declined by 18% compared to last year. It remains unclear whether farmers in eastern Russia will be able to harvest the remaining 15% of their acreage, as snow is already gradually covering the regions.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
