Palm oil exports will continue to grow at a rapid pace in early 2026.
Global palm oil exports are set to rise, driven by stronger price competitiveness and high inventories in Malaysia. Indonesia and Malaysia will lead shipments through 2026, while India and other key buyers may boost imports. Production may soften slightly next year, with Indonesia facing declines amid policy uncertainties and Malaysia nearing record output.
Global palm oil exports for the year will be 26.2 million tonnes, up from 23.95 million tonnes last year, of which 14.12 (11.59) million tonnes will be supplied by Indonesia and 7.85 (8.62) million tonnes, according to Oil World (Germany).
Strong palm oil exports are expected to continue into early next year as price competitiveness for crude and refined oils has improved in recent months, particularly due to pressure from unusually high inventories in Malaysia.
A significant increase in palm oil imports to India is expected in December-March 2025/26, and a resumption of imports to China, Vietnam, Mexico, Nigeria and a number of other countries is also possible.
In 2026, global exports are projected to be 25.89 million tons, of which Indonesia will ship 13.41 million tons to the foreign market and Malaysia 8.25 million tons.
Global palm oil production in 2026 will reach 43.92 million tonnes, slightly below the expected 2025 figure of 44.35 million tonnes. Specifically, Indonesia’s palm oil production will begin to decline year-on-year starting in the second quarter of 2026 and could reach 25.04 million tonnes, down from 22.46 million tonnes in 2025. However, many uncertainties remain, particularly regarding the impact of strict government intervention. Malaysia could produce 10.42 (10.66) million tonnes.
It was previously reported that Malaysia’s palm oil exports fell by 16% in December, indicating a significant weakening in demand and rising inventories, which have risen for the sixth month in a row, increasing by 13% month-on-month to 2.84 million tonnes. Analysts expect the country’s palm oil production to reach 20 million tonnes for the first time next year.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
