EIA expects fuel ethanol production to expand to 1.08 million barrels per day in 2027
The EIA expects U.S. ethanol production to dip slightly in 2026 before expanding in 2027. Output is forecast at 1.07 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.08 million in 2027, with steady consumption and continued net ethanol exports.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration currently expects U.S. ethanol production volumes to expand in 2027, according to the agency’s latest Short-Term Energy Outlook. The agency, however, revised down its forecast for 2026 production.
The EIA currently expects fuel ethanol production to average 1.07 million barrels per day in 2026, down from the December forecast of 1.08 million barrels per day. The January STEO contains the EIA’s first short-term outlooks for 2027, with the agency predicting fuel ethanol production will expand to 1.08 million gallons per year in 2027. Fuel ethanol production averaged 1.07 million barrels per day in 2025.
On a quarterly basis, fuel ethanol production is expected to average 1.06 million barrels per day during the first and second quarters of 2026, expanding to 1.07 million barrels per day during the third quarter and 1.11 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter. Moving into 2027, fuel ethanol production is currently expected to average 1.07 million barrels per day in the first and second quarters, 1.08 million barrels per day during the third quarter and 1.11 million barrels per day during the fourth quarter.
The EIA maintained its forecast that net imports of fuel ethanol will average -150,000 barrels per day in 2026, with that level currently expected to continue into 2027. Net exports of fuel ethanol were at -140,000 barrels per day in 2025.
The EIA also maintained its forecast that fuel ethanol consumption will average 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, but expanded its estimate for 2025 fuel ethanol consumption from the December forecast of 930,000 barrel per day to 940,000 barrels per day. Fuel ethanol consumption is currently expected to average 930,000 barrels per day in 2027.
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Source : Ethanol Producer Magazine
