World corn production outpaces rise in demand
Global corn stocks are set to rise for the first time in three years as production growth outpaces demand in 2025/26. Large U.S. harvests, strong output in South America and rising ethanol use will pressure prices, despite solid feed demand and robust global exports.
SASKATOON — Global corn inventories and the stocks-to-use ratio for the crop are set to rise for the first time in three years, says an analyst.
Libin Zhou, ag research manager at the London Stock Exchange Group, said a massive crop in the United States and favourable weather conditions in South America mean the growth in production will outpace an increase in consumption in 2025-26.
She anticipates global corn carryout will increase by 26.1 million tonnes after three consecutive years of declines.
That can be blamed on a 69 million tonne increase in global production of the crop due to big harvests in the U.S., Ukraine and China and a promising outlook for Brazil, she said during a recent webinar hosted by Argus Media.
The only major production region where there was a shortfall of corn was western and southeastern Europe.
Global corn prices tumbled by more than 20 percent between the start of 2025 and the summer lows.
Prices gradually recovered due to the shortage in Europe and strong U.S. exports, but they recently fell again due to favourable South American weather and an upward revision in U.S. production in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
U.S. exports have been at an all-time high due to competitive pricing, the weak U.S. dollar and ample supplies.
There have been strong sales to the usual markets, such as Mexico, Japan and Colombia, but also surprisingly good demand from the European Union, the Middle East and North Africa.
Exports are also anticipated to rise in Brazil and Argentina.
Global feed demand for corn has been solid due to the growing population, economic development and low corn prices.
Corn accounts for 95 per cent of total livestock feed demand in the U.S. and is also a big player in Brazil, which is the world’s second largest poultry producer.
There has also been very strong demand from the global ethanol market.
U.S. ethanol exports remain strong. Shipments to Brazil have tailed off over the last eight years, but exports to Canada are on the rise.
Brazil is just starting to harvest its first (summer) crop of corn and to plant the second (winter) crop.
“This year, summer corn is struggling with excessive rainfall or not enough rainfall in some areas,” said Nathalia Giannetti, senior reporter with Argus.
The soybean harvest is late, which means the winter corn will be planted outside the ideal window and may reach the key stage of development under dry conditions.
However, Conab estimates that Brazilian farmers will plant a record 56 million acres of the crop this year, which will help offset the yield losses.
Conab is forecasting 138.9 million tonnes of production in 2025-26, the second biggest cop on record next to last year’s 139.7 million tonnes.
However, demand is forecast at 140 million tonnes, 10 million tonnes higher than last year due to growing demand from the ethanol sector.
Corn ethanol production is forecast at 10 billion litres, up from basically nothing 10 years ago. It is expected to reach 16.6 billion litres by 2033-34.
There are 24 corn ethanol plants operating in the country with 16 more authorized and another 16 in the planning stages.
Most of those facilities are in the central-west region of the country, where most of the corn is grown.
Brazil exports a lot of corn to places where the U.S. is not active. Iran is one of those markets due to economic sanctions. Egypt is another due to Brazil’s cheaper logistics and shorter shipping times.
“Last year, the domestic market pushed exports to the sidelines as buyers from the local industries started paying prices above those for the export market,” said Giannetti.
However, carryover from the 2024-25 crop is ample, so more volume should be available this year for the world’s second biggest exporter of the crop.
Conab is forecasting 46.5 million tonnes of exports, up from 40 million tonnes last year.
Zhou said corn prices will be influenced by South American weather and U.S. planting intentions.
She is forecasting that U.S. farmers will plant 93.9 to 95 million acres of the crop, down from 98.8 million acres last year.
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Source : The Western Producer
