Unstable US duties architecture creates new risks for global grain trade
Tariff uncertainty is rising after the U.S. Supreme Court limited the use of IEEPA for trade duties, shifting tariff policy into legal risk territory. Experts warn future actions may rely on alternative laws, increasing volatility in grain and oil trade pricing, contract terms, and global origin competitiveness.
Mel Bostanci, an expert on Kazakh wheat and MENA & Asia markets, stated that the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision removed a key legal pillar for American tariffs, but it does not mean the tariffs are gone. According to her, the court blocked the use of IEEPA as a tool for imposing tariffs, shifting part of the current tariff framework from a policy matter to a litigation risk.
Bostanci noted that significant sums of already paid duties could be at stake. Estimates cited by Reuters suggest potential refunds could reach around $175 billion, depending on how claims and legal proceedings are structured. She emphasized, however, that the main concern is not the refunds, but which mechanism will be used going forward.
According to Bostanci, the U.S. administration could redirect authority through other legal tools, such as Section 232 (national security), Section 301 (unfair trade practices), or Section 122 (temporary import surcharges). For physical trade in grains, oils, and feedstocks, this creates increased instability in forward pricing, shifts in CIF economics and origin arbitrage, and heightened importance of contract terms. “Markets can operate under high tariffs, but they struggle with an unstable tariff architecture,” Bostanci stressed.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
