Wheat production is likely to drop in 2026 – FAO
Global wheat production is forecast to decline about 3% to 810 million tonnes in 2026 as farmers in major producers reduce sowings due to softer prices, according to FAO. Despite the drop, output will remain above the five-year average, while global cereal production and trade are expected to stay strong.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has has release d a statement on new wheat production forecasts for 2026, with preliminary outlooks pointing to a likely global decline of around 3 percent to 810 million tonnes, albeit remaining above the past five-year average.
Farmers in the European Union, the Russian Federation and the United States of America are expected to reduce the area sown to winter wheat in response to softer crop prices., the FAO said.
The production outlook in India, however, is generally favorable, supported by record sowings encouraged by government incentives. Prospects are also positive for Pakistan and broadly favorable in China, it added.
FAO’s new Cereal Supply and Demand Brief also provides an early outlook for maize production south of the equator. Expanding planted areas and favourable weather conditions point to above-average outputs in Argentina and Brazil. In South Africa, large plantings are forecast to lead to a second consecutive bumper maize crop in 2026, although it may be below the 2025 level due to irregular weather lowering yields in some provinces.Remove ads
The FAO brief also revised upwards its estimate for 2025 global cereal production to a record 3 029 million tonnes, a 5.6 percent increase from the previous year.
The forecast for world cereal utilization in 2025/26 has also been revised upwards, to a record 2 943 million tonnes, with gains expected for wheat, coarse grains and rice. The new estimates point to world cereal stocks likely rising to 940.5 million tonnes by the close of seasons, resulting in a comfortable global cereals stocks-to-use ratio of 31.9 percent.
FAO’s latest forecast for world trade in cereals during the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) stands at 501.7 million tonnes, a 3.5 percent increase from the previous 12 months and the second highest level on record.
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Source : 3 News
