Weak 2026 Monsoon outlook raises alarm for crops, prices; Sugarcane impact seen limited for now: Experts
Below-normal monsoon in 2026 raises concerns for agriculture, water levels, and inflation. Weak August–September rains could hurt key crops and groundwater. While sugarcane may stay resilient short-term, future planting and yields could be impacted, potentially affecting sugar output and rural economy stability.
The 2026 monsoon is expected to underperform. The India Meteorological Department has projected below-average rainfall for the 2026 southwest monsoon, raising concerns about agriculture, water levels and rural demand.
ChiniMandi spoke to several industry experts about how they interpret the projection and its impact on sugarcane sowing and sugar production.
Atul Chaturvedi, Director, Shree Renuka Sugars, said that the gloomy forecast for the impending Monsoon might have serious repercussions for food prices. He said that the prediction suggests we may have a near-normal monsoon in June/July, but very poor in August/September.
“Any agriculturist will tell you that August/ September is the pod filling stage, and good rains/ irrigation are a must. The predictions also warn that west, central and north India will get poor rains, but East and NE will get bountiful rain,” he said.
Chaturvedi said that the area likely to get poor rain is home to pulses, cotton and Oilseeds, adding that the spatial distribution of rain looks alarming. He said that the West Asia conflict is adding further woes.
“High Petroleum prices have a cascading effect on all commodities.
The Indian consumer has been shielded from high petroleum prices. But the million-dollar question is for how long? It will be interesting to see what happens post the Assembly elections in West Bengal and other States.
Prakash Naiknavare, MD, NFCSF, said that, including IMD, five global weather agencies have predicted a strong El Niño impact starting in June & intensifying thereafter.
“This may have scanty rainfall & extended dry spells. But it may not adversely affect sugarcane as in the case of Kharif & Rabi crops. Reason being that sugarcane belongs to the Bamboo family, having inbuilt sturdiness & ability to sustain extreme weather”.
Naiknavre said that, moreover, due to bountiful rains, the major reservoirs are having a fairly good amount of water to partially combat the El Nino menace. Sugarcane standing in the field is maturing & hopefully will not be too much affected for the upcoming SY 2026-27.
“But it is likely to impact the new plantation & ratoon crop which will come for crushing in SY 2027-28. But it’s too early to talk about it,” he said.
Rampal Jat, National President, Kisan Mahapanchayat, said that less Monsoon is unlikely to adversely affect the production of Kharif crops such as bajra, groundnut, moong, and sesame.
“If rainfall remains low during August and September, it could reduce the output of Rabi crops like mustard, gram, and wheat. Below-average rainfall also negatively impacts groundwater levels. The agricultural sector is the backbone of India’s economy. Therefore, deficient rainfall can create a situation where the country’s economy becomes unstable”.
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Source : Chinimandi
