Australia’s wheat production may decline significantly
Australia wheat output is set to fall to 29 MT in 2026/27 due to lower area, weaker yields, and weather risks like El Niño. High fertilizer costs are shifting acreage toward barley, while exports decline, though Australia remains a key global supplier, especially to Asia.
Australia’s wheat production is expected to drop notably in the MY a2026/27, falling to 29 million tonnes compared to an estimated 36 million tonnes the previous season. This forecast was released by the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture in its report published on April 28.
The anticipated decline is driven by both a reduction in harvested area and a projected decrease in yields. While the growing season has started favorably across most key regions, uncertainty surrounding in-season rainfall remains a concern. Additionally, the possible development of El Niño conditions poses further downside risks, particularly due to its association with drier weather patterns.
Harvested wheat area is forecast to decrease by 600,000 hectares, or 4.8%. This is largely due to extremely dry conditions in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. Farmers are also adjusting cropping programs in response to sharply rising nitrogen fertilizer prices, influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Wheat yields are projected at 2.46 tonnes per hectare, slightly above the 10-year average but significantly below the 2.9 tonnes per hectare achieved in the 2025–2026 season. Despite this decline, long-term productivity improvements have been supported by advancements in agricultural practices, including better soil moisture conservation, improved crop rotation, and more precise nutrient management.
Exports are also expected to fall, with wheat shipments projected at 23.5 million tonnes, down by 2.5 million tonnes year-on-year. Australia remains a major global supplier, exporting to more than 50 markets. Indonesia has emerged as the largest destination in recent years, accounting for about one-fifth of total exports.
Meanwhile, barley production is forecast at 13.6 million tonnes, exceeding the 10-year average despite a decline in yields. Farmers are expanding barley planting due to its lower nitrogen requirements compared to wheat and canola. However, barley exports are expected to decrease to 7 million tonnes, with China reestablishing itself as the leading export market following the removal of import duties.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
