Philippine sugar output seen steady at 1.85 million tons in 2026
Philippines’ sugar production is forecast steady at 1.85 million tonnes in 2026, with stable acreage and favourable rainfall offsetting land constraints. Consumption remains flat due to high prices, while imports of 300,000 tonnes will support supply. Stocks stay elevated, exports remain zero, and premium muscovado output is set to rise slightly.
The Philippines’ raw sugar production is forecast to remain steady at 1.85 million metric tons in marketing year 2026 as favorable rainfall offsets limited land expansion and ongoing land conversion, according to a report from the US Department of Agriculture.
The USDA Sugar Annual Report released April 16 projected that sugarcane area will remain flat through 2026. The stagnation stems from a lack of expansion opportunities and increasing competition from residential and industrial land use.
Negros Occidental accounts for about 61 percent of national output, followed by Bukidnon, Panay and Batangas. Despite weaker millgate prices in 2025, industry sources noted that farmers continued planting.
Harvesting and milling are expected to stretch into late June in certain regions, keeping the overall production outlook unchanged from 2025 levels.
Centrifugal sugar production absorbs about 97 percent of harvested sugarcane, while a small share is diverted to ethanol.
On the demand side, consumption is expected to remain largely unchanged. Persistently high retail prices continue to discourage higher usage among households, institutional buyers and industrial users.
While retail prices have eased from 2023 highs, they remains elevated above P80 per kilogram. The beverage and confectionery sectors remain the key industrial consumers.
The government expects imports to stabilize supply and prices. Based on existing government issuances, refined sugar imports are projected at 300,000 metric tons in 2026. Although import volumes were high in the previous cycle, prices have seen only modest easing while stocks remain elevated.
Ending inventories are expected to stay high but decline slightly year-on-year, as carryover stocks from 2025 continue to influence market conditions.
Exports are forecast to remain at zero in 2026 pending policy direction from the Sugar Regulatory Administration. However, the Philippines is expected to fulfill its 2025 US World Trade Organization tariff-rate quota allocation of 66,000 metric tons raw value.
Production of muscovado sugar is expected to recover slightly due to growing demand in premium markets. Export prices in Europe and Japan remain higher than domestic levels for the specialty sugar.
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Source : Manila Standard
