Rainfall improves Australia’s wheat outlook, but dry weather risks remain
Recent rainfall improved soil moisture across eastern Australia, boosting wheat planting and production prospects. However, high fertilizer costs, low global wheat prices and expected El Niño-driven dry conditions pose risks. Australia forecasts 2026/27 wheat output at 26.7 million tonnes, down significantly.
Recent rainfall across key grain-growing regions of Australia has improved soil moisture conditions and encouraged farmers to expand late wheat sowing. The precipitation brought relief to some of the driest areas of New South Wales and Queensland, allowing growers to plant additional wheat and chickpea crops and boosting confidence after a difficult start to the season.
Analysts estimate that the rains could add around 500 thsd ha of wheat plantings in eastern Australia and increase production in New South Wales and Queensland by several million tonnes. Favorable moisture conditions were also recorded in South Australia and Victoria, while Western Australia remains the main region facing below-average soil moisture levels.
Despite the recent improvement, Australian wheat producers continue to face significant challenges. Fertilizer prices have surged following disruptions to supplies from the Gulf region, prompting many farmers to reduce input use. At the same time, low global wheat prices continue to pressure farm profitability.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology forecasts below-average rainfall across major cropping regions between June and August as El Niño conditions are expected to develop. The outlook raises concerns about drought risks during critical crop development stages later in the season.
The Australian government currently projects wheat production at 26.7 mln tonnes in 2026/27, around 9 mln tonnes below last season’s harvest and the lowest level in three years. Farmers note that rainfall during August and September will be crucial in determining final yields and the overall success of the crop.
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Source : Ukr Agro Consult
