Wheat prices in Russia fell by 22% over the year
Russia’s fourth-class wheat averaged 12,900 rubles/tonne in Q2 2026, down 22% year-on-year, pressured by a record 91.1 million-tonne wheat harvest and a stronger ruble. Farmer profitability remains weak, spring wheat area is shrinking, but prices are expected to recover from July, with 7–10% growth forecast in 2027.
The average price of fourth-class wheat in Russia in the second quarter of 2026 amounted to 12.9 thousand rubles/t (152 euros/t). This is 22% less than a year ago. Such calculations are given by analysts of “Eiler” and Rosselkhozbank. According to Rosstat, in April, the price fell by 27.7% year-on-year – to Br12.2 thousand / t (144 euro / t).
This is due to the high crop-2025 (91.1 million tons of wheat, 10.3% more than the previous year’s level) and pressure from exporters, whose revenues have decreased due to the strengthening of the ruble. With the start of the new agricultural season in July, domestic wheat prices will start to recover. The gap with last year will narrow by 6%. However, agrarians will not be able to increase profitability: this year they will reduce the area under spring wheat by at least 4.6%, according to Kommersant.
The reason for the decline is the strengthening of the ruble
Exporters’ profitability depends on the exchange rate: they buy wheat for rubles and sell it for dollars. The fall in revenues forces them to reduce prices inside the country. At the same time, according to ICAR, wheat exports in the 2025/26 season may grow by 6.8% to 47 million tons, i.e. 52% of the Russian harvest will go abroad.
The profitability of grain producers is now extremely low: in the center of Russia it is zero, in the south it is no more than 10-15%, whereas before it used to exceed 20%. Agrarians are reducing the area under grain crops: over the last five years the decrease has reached 9%. This year, the area under spring wheat will decrease by another 4.6% (to 10.5 million hectares).
Prices are expected to recover with the start of the new agricultural season in July. In July-September, according to the forecast of Eiler and RSHB, a ton of wheat will cost 13.1 thousand rubles (6% less year-on-year), and by the end of the year the price may increase by 4%. In 2027, analysts expect growth of 7-10%.
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Source : Logos Press
